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10 Mar 2022
First Take: JD Sports Fashion - Read across from Adidas FY results

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First Take: JD Sports Fashion - Read across from Adidas FY results
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
10 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Adidas’ (N/C) FY22 guidance appears quite upbeat and underpins JD Sports’ FY23 guidance, in our view
Adidas’ management talked about ‘a great start in 2022’ and guided to FY22 currency neutral Group sales growth of between 11% and 13% (including Eur250m risk in Russia/CIS business from the war in Ukraine or c.1% of Group growth), which reflects mid-teens growth in EMEA and mid-to-high-teens growth in North America. Included in the guidance is an average mid-to-high single digit price increase in 2H. EMEA will be driven by ‘an expansion of our membership program and market share gains with key alliance accounts.’ The US is expected to be driven by growth in DTC and wholesale with management commenting that it will ‘significantly increase our market share with key alliance accounts in the market and look forward to continuing driving our basis in particular with Foot Locker, Dick's, JD, Kohl's and Nordstrom.’
After last year’s supply chain constraints and product shortages, Adidas’ management is expecting the situation to improve materially in Q1, and from Q2 for there to be no significant supply shortages. So, from a forecasting perspective, guidance is for Q1 revenue to be down mid-single-digits (supply shortage reducing growth by more than 10 percentage points) and a significant acceleration in Q2.
Valuation very undemanding for long term growth story
Post the recent market sell off and sector rotation, we believe JD Sports’ shares are trading on a very undemanding CY22E PE of 12.2x, for a business capable of delivering double-digit growth, with upside risk to forecasts, in our view, and over £1.3bn of net cash for further acquisitions. Adidas’ guidance yesterday for the year ahead appears quite upbeat and in our view underpins JD Sports’ guidance for flat growth FY23 on FY22. We note that Adidas still sees robust demand in the US despite last year’s fiscal stimulus. It will be interesting to hear what Nike (N/C) has to say on its Group FY22 guidance for mid-single digit revenue growth, when it issues its Q3 update on 21st March (May year end). Q3 revenue growth guidance was low single digit as Nike continues to be impacted by last year’s lost production in Vietnam. JD Sports is yet to issue a new date for its FY22 results (was to be on 12th April), which are delayed to give KPMG sufficient time to complete the audit.