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15 May 2020
First Take: JD Sports Fashion - US stores started reopening

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First Take: JD Sports Fashion - US stores started reopening
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m
- Published:
15 May 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
We held a call for investors with CFO Neil Greenhalgh yesterday. Comments and confidence were consistent with its recent COVID-19 statement. JD has sufficient liquidity (£1.2 billion) to ride out a 6-month closure (see Positioned to resume growth) and is well positioned with its market-leading, multi-channel proposition able to quickly resume its historic double-digit growth trajectory, in our view. We expect the athleisure market to rebound relatively quickly following months of customers being cooped up and from their recent updates we do not expect Nike (NR) or Adidas (NR) to flood the market with surplus stock.
Main takeaways
20% of its US stores reopened in the last week. In Europe, there are now a handful of stores open in each of Italy, France, Spain and Belgium. This is in addition to Germany, the Netherlands and Scandinavia. Store in Australia and Asia have traded through the pandemic
Early feedback is that footfall in Europe is down significantly as one would expect. No weekend spikes. In the US, footfall is less than expected though it is only week 1. Management puts this down to having a mall-based portfolio with space. Interestingly in Europe, street-based stores are generally doing better than Malls. Conversion is up in both regions.
UK will hopefully start to reopen in June. Stores with a street entrance will open first. The UK portfolio is split c.50:50 between street and shopping centres.
Online, which historically was c.20% of sales, traded throughout. Sales have accelerated since Easter. Given Adidas recently reported that its online business was up 35% in Q1, +55% in March and up by triple digits in early April, demand for athleisure is clearly there and we would expect JD to have performed similarly. The warehouse has been reconfigured so that JD has the capacity to deal with a Black Friday every day. There has been little promotional activity so margin is better.
Q2 launches by the brands have effectively been shifted to Q3 with Q3 shifted to Q4, so effectively a quarter of launches is lost. There is likely to be some promotional activity initially to get consumers’ attention which will be lower margin.
Further market consolidation will be a theme and JD has the liquidity to take advantage, assuming the price is right. It has been approached about European opportunities and further afield.
US strategy unchanged with plans to convert 100 Finish Line stores to JD over the next 2 years. This will now be more phased to FY22. It currently has just over 500 Finish Line stores and long-term will probably end up with c.300 of each fascia.
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