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03 Jul 2019
Investec - JD Sports Fashion (Buy): 2019 AGM statement positive

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Investec - JD Sports Fashion (Buy): 2019 AGM statement positive
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m
- Published:
03 Jul 2019 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
LFL sales trends seen in Q1 similar to 2H19, i.e. positive in-store LFL in the UK, double-digit growth in Europe and low to mid-single digit in the US. A net 29 stores were opened YTD (net 18 Europe/5 Asia/5 UK/1 USA), with c.80 still planned for FY20. US JD website launched in May. Management is still encouraged by the US performance, with JD bought stock about to go into store.
On track to achieve FY20 PBT at least in-line with consensus (£404m according to the company versus INVe £406m).
No change to forecasts at this early stage in the year, though risk is firmly on the upside, in our view, given momentum. Demand for athleisure globally remains strong as seen from Nike’s recent update, which maintained its high single-digit FY20 revenue growth range (Q4 US revenues +9% and EMEA +11% at constant FX). Both JD and Footlocker say the innovation pipeline appears strong, which is an important driver of performance and bodes well for H2.
TP raised to 720p (from 580p) as we roll forward our valuation benchmark to CY20e earnings. Our TP is based on the average PE of a basket of European growth peers cross-referenced with DCF.
Valuation (CY20e PE 16.6x) undemanding given strong cash generation and the potential to deliver sustainable double-digit growth for the foreseeable future, helped by its strong Brand relationships and unique elevated proposition which dovetails well with the brands’ strategic direction. We continue to see risk to forecasts on the upside. Next news: H1 results on 10th September.