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  • 14 Sep 2021

JD Sports Fashion : 1H22 results – smashed it - Buy


JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 77.4 -1.8 (-3.0%) | Mkt Cap: 3,966m


  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert

    • 7 pages


 

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JD Sports Fashion : 1H22 results – smashed it - Buy


JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 77.4 -1.8 (-3.0%) | Mkt Cap: 3,966m


  • Published: 14 Sep 2021
  • Author: Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert
  • Pages: 7
  • Investec Bank


An outstanding 1H performance, reporting pre-exceptional PBT of £439.7m, versus INVe £240m, driven by both the US and UK. All 3 US businesses, including the recently acquired Shoe Palace and DTLR (total 1H EBIT contribution £72.9m), capitalised on the favourable trading conditions helped by the second US fiscal stimulus and strong gross margin from lower discounting. The UK saw strong retention of sales through digital channels when its stores were closed in Q1, as well as pent-up demand on reopening. Elsewhere, JD Europe reported a loss, impacted by extra Brexit-related costs and store closures. Other European fascias and UK outdoor returned to profit. JD Asia grew strongly, driven by Australia, with other Asian territories impacted by the lack of Chinese travellers/COVID. FY22 IFRS16 PBT guidance raised c.36% to ‘at least £750m’ including repayment of furlough, compared to ‘at least £550m’ back in July. The upper end of the market range was £650m with FactSet consensus at £592m. New store investment picking up, with new JD stores open in Western Europe (21), Asia Pacific (4 Australia/2 Thailand). JD also now has 66 stores trading in the US, opening 7 new stores and converting 10 Finish Lines in H1. We upgrade IFRS16 FY22E/FY23E PBT by 36%/15% as summarised in Figure 1 (over), with the main drivers being the US and UK. We are conservatively assuming a decline in H2/H2 PBT given tough comps and higher supply chain costs, UK business rates and infrastructure investment (Derby and Heerlen). Our TP, based on mid 20s CY22E PE, rises to 1300p (prev 1170p). Undemanding valuation (CY22E PE 20.5x) given global growth opportunities & strong cash generation. JD is emerging strongly from the pandemic with a step change in earning. It looks well positioned to deliver double-digit growth for the foreseeable future via organic investment & acquisitions.

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