This content is only available within our institutional offering.

26 Sep 2024
JD Sports Fashion : 1H25 results preview – 2 October - Buy

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
JD Sports Fashion : 1H25 results preview – 2 October - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
26 Sep 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
Preview 1H25 results due 2nd October. Management reiterated FY25 adjusted PBT guidance of £955m-1,035m pre Hibbett (INVe £1,016m incl Hibbett), which includes a c.£55m annual profit benefit from an accounting policy change with amortisation of acquired intangibles now taken as an adjusting item below the PBT line. JD has already reported sales with 1H Group organic sales (at constant FX) up 6.4% with LFLs +0.7%. We are forecasting a 2% decline in 1H25 PBT to £390m (1H24 £398m). Hibbett was acquired right at the end of the period and is unlikely to contribute.
Focus is likely to be on: (1) Whether the underperformance of JD is just down to NIKE’s weak innovation and promotional activity, and how promotional NIKE has been through 1H. NIKE will give its own Q1 update the evening before (1st October), so the market will have NIKE’s up-to-date thinking on the shape of its recovery when JD reports; (2) The UK is JD’s weakest region (1H LFLs down 3%) and its most mature. We would be interested in what needs to happen for the UK to return to growth. (3) New space growth in North America (organic +10.7%; LFL +3.3%) and Europe (organic +10.1%; LFL+3%) is crucial to achieving its FY28 targets, so how the new space and conversions are performing will be of interest. (4) An update on infrastructure investment plans, with the news Derby is closing having only just opened. Whether the ramp up of Heerlen is going to plan and if any addition expenditure is needed to integrate Hibbett’s Alabama RDC.
No change to FY25E/FY26E PBT forecasts but the shape has changed to reflect the additional historic information given by management on the new segmented divisional split. There has been an immaterial change at the EPS level reflecting the profit mix impact on non-controlling interests.