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18 Feb 2022
JD Sports Fashion : A strong end to the year - Buy

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JD Sports Fashion : A strong end to the year - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
18 Feb 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
Guidance raised to FY21 PBT of at least £900m from at least £875m in January. In the January’s update, total revenues for the 22 weeks to 1st January were up more than 10% in the Group’s like for like businesses. This positive performance has continued through to year end (end of January).
The upside was mainly Europe where demand was more positive than management was expecting in January, when it was more cautious given the level of COVID restrictions in Europe, given that January is a big sale month. UK performance is still nicely positive with clothing outperforming footwear. The US market is tougher, as expected, given Nike’s supply challenges and tough comps from last year’s stimulus cheques.
We have upgraded FY22E and FY23E PBT by c.3%. Management has maintained January’s guidance for flat profits YoY. It is cognisant of the inflationary headwinds and constrained supply among key brand partners while it estimated FY22 US EBIT benefitted by c.£100m from the government’s fiscal stimulus in 1H (Finish Line sales +40% mid-March to July). We assume a £50m decline in US EBIT YoY as underlying growth should partially offset this.
Market valuation (CY22E PE 14.8x) is very undemanding for a business capable of delivering double-digit growth for the foreseeable future, with upside risk to forecasts and over £1.3bn of net cash for further acquisitions. We see multiple opportunities to leverage its established US & European growth platforms, backed by a highly profitable UK business. In addition, it is well progressed in building a longer-term Asian growth platform and we note that the first JD Store in Indonesia opened this week, adding another country.
New data for FY results will be announced in due course. We would not read anything into the FY results delay, given the complexity of the Group, while it will allow JD to report on the outcome of the divestment of Footasylum.