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21 Nov 2024
JD Sports Fashion : A weak end to Q3 - Buy

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JD Sports Fashion : A weak end to Q3 - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.9 0.2 0.3% | Mkt Cap: 4,147m
- Published:
21 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
8 -
Weak Q3 trading, particularly October. After a strong back-to-school period in August/September (in-line with Q2), October’s trading was more volatile in both North America and the UK. The promotional environment was highly competitive and mild weather did not help. In the US, both DTC and its peers were discounting plus the US consumer was cautious in the weeks preceding the election. JD maintained its commercial discipline, resulting in a 0.3%pts increase in Q3 Group gross margin (+0.4%ppt ex Hibbett acquisition). Footwear outperformed apparel & stores outperformed online.
LFL weakness seen in most markets except Europe, as seen in Figure 3. Group organic Q3 sales were up 5.4% (LFL -0.3%). By region, UK Q3 organic sales were down -0.1% (LFL down -2.4%). North America Q3 organic sales grew 5.9% (LFL down -1.5% with all US fascias performing similarly). Europe performed well with Q3 organic sales up 10.4% and LFL +3.5%. Italy and Spain stood out as the strongest countries.
Company anticipates FY25 PBT at the lower end of £955m-£1,035m guidance range (FactSet consensus £988m). This excludes the Courir acquisition which has been cleared by the regulatory authorities and should complete next week. INVe cut FY25E/FY25E PBT by 5%/6.6% respectively. We were ahead of consensus so FY25E consensus downgrade likely to be c3%. FY26E trimmed by more to reflect the partial mitigation of c.£30m extra NI UK costs. TP, now based on a CYPE 14x, cut to 200p (previously 230p).
The implied downgrade is less than the more material downgrade implied by its valuation (CY25E PE of 8.2x ex Courir) with the Group’s attractive long term growth opportunities being overlooked, in our view. Comps get much easier from here, although evidence of better trading and market stability is probably needed before the material valuation gap is closed.