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27 Jun 2023
JD Sports Fashion : AGM – Solid performance - Buy

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JD Sports Fashion : AGM – Solid performance - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m
- Published:
27 Jun 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
Trading remains in-line with FY expectations (company compiled PBT consensus £1.04bn). As previously guided the 1H:2H trading split is expected to return to a more normalised level with c.35% of FY profits generated in 1H.
May trading slowed as expected. Group organic sales grew c.8% at constant FX vs up more than 15% in the 1st 3 months. The US slowed from +25% in Q1 to mid-single digit as comps toughened YoY. Europe & Asia sales were up 20%, similar to 1Q, with the UK growth (up single digit) also similar to Q1.
In June, the positive trends in UK, Europe & Asia continued (similar to Q1), though this has been partially offset by a further weakening in US, which has seen some softening in trade, consistent with other players. North America sales were down high single digit. In hindsight, management feels LY’s 1H stimulus comp effect may have continued for longer than they appreciated as on a 4 year basis (stripping out COVID), US sales have consistently been up YoY c.40% every month YTD. JD’s US inventory levels are normal & with little excess industry stock now, the wider promotional environment has normalised.
FY24 opening programme on track with more than 150 new openings planned in FY24 (c.90 Finish Line conversions). A net 32 opened added YTD.
No change to PBT forecast, though the mix has changed, resulting in a 0.7% FY24E EPS increase due to lower US minority. FY24E US EBIT cut by £25m, offset by a £25m increase in Europe/Asia EBIT. While retailers typically make more profits in the Christmas half, the back end weighted nature of JD’s opening programme means profits will be more 2H weighted. Also, by 2H, JD will have annualised the higher US promotional activity from elevated stock levels in 2H23, which should result in improved 2H US gross margin (vs down in 1H).
M&A: Work is progressing to complete the Courir acquisition by the end of the 2023, with an update on ISRG future ownership due over the summer.