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01 Jul 2021
JD Sports Fashion : AGM update – Another upgrade - Buy

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JD Sports Fashion : AGM update – Another upgrade - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m
- Published:
01 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
Guiding to FY22 PBT of at least £550m (Factset consensus £529m) which includes the cost of potentially repaying £25m of furlough payments received in the current year. The decision on repayment will be deferred until there is certainty on both the full lifting of COVID restrictions and the consequence of any further lockdowns over next winter.
We upgrade FY22E/FY23E IFRS16 PBT by 11.1%/5.9% to £558m/£684m, reflecting guidance, with the main driver being a stronger than expected US performance. Our TP rises to 1170p (prev 1100p) reflecting the upgrades.
Virtually all stores are trading now, although there continue to be some temporary closures in parts of South East Asia. The UK benefitted from pent-up demand post reopening, reacting positively to JD’s more innovative and exciting product mix. Store footfall remains fragile, though online traffic is still elevated (c.30% of sales). Sales were up double digit on 2 years ago in April/May and single digit in June. US sales have benefitted positively from a second round of Government stimulus in March and were up decent double digit on 2019. There are now 60 JD fascia stores following the opening of 5 new stores and 6 badge flips from Finish Line this year. The plan is still to do 50 Finish Line badge flips. In Europe, when stores were closed earlier in the year, sales retention was ahead of lockdown#1, ie running at 60-70% of 2019.
Governance: The Board has announced its intention to split the current role of Executive Chairman and CEO before the next AGM and is looking at the Board composition in light of Hampton-Alexander and Parker Reviews.
Valuation (CY22E PE 20.8x) does not reflect JD’s strong cash generation nor a material growth opportunity in our view. We expect JD to resume its exciting growth story and emerge from the pandemic with a step change in earnings helped by recent acquisitions.