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11 Jan 2023
JD Sports Fashion : Christmas successfully delivered - Buy

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JD Sports Fashion : Christmas successfully delivered - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
11 Jan 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
Trading ahead of expectation, with revenue growth in its organic businesses (ex DTLR, MIG and Greece acquisitions) strengthening in 2H. For the 22 weeks of 2H to 31 December, total revenue growth was ahead more than 10% (1H +5%), with the last 6 weeks sales up more than 20% (Black Friday included).
Standout performance was the US which recovered strongly, delivering growth of over 20% (ex DTLR) in 2H to date (1H -9%). Better stock availability helped given 2H global supply chain issues resulted in a weak comp YoY. As expected, there was more discount in apparel YoY. The JD conversion programme is on track with 134 JD stores open in North America.
Elsewhere, 1H growth rates were maintained, which was better than anticipated. In 1H, JD UK & ROI total sales were ahead 6%, Europe 26% and Asia 33%. The Group is on course to add c.100 new stores this year.
FY23 guidance now for PBT at the top end of the consensus range of £933m to £985m (previously flat on FY22 PBT of £947m) vs company compiled consensus £958m/INVe £958m. FY24 guidance is for PBT just over £1bn vs consensus at £990m (INVe £1053m).
We upgrade FY23E PBT by 1.7% to £980m and maintain FY24E PBT at £1,053m. We assume flat UK EBIT YoY as any increase in profits is expected to be offset by a step up investment in IT & distribution. Management is looking to accelerate organic store investment which is expected to be back ended with 60-70 JD’s planed for the US, Europe 70+ (inc 20 stores acquired in Italy) and c.10 in Asia. Capex is expected to be c.£500m as there is also material infrastructure investment.
Valuation (CY23E PE 10.9x) is undemanding, in our view. It does not reflect JD’s strong global proposition nor the multitude of exciting long term growth opportunities available.