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22 Jul 2022
JD Sports Fashion : Robust trading – AGM update - Buy

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JD Sports Fashion : Robust trading – AGM update - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m
- Published:
22 Jul 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
No change to FY23 PBT guidance. While conscious of the macro backdrop, management has reiterated its FY23 underlying headline PBT guidance of flat PBT YoY with FY22 PBT of £947.32m (INVe FY23E PBT £958m; Factset consensus £953m). Trading is expected to return to its historic more normal trading patterns with c.35% to 40% of profits generated in 1H, which implies 1H22 PBT range of £334m to £381m on consensus FY PBT forecast.
Robust trading continues for the first 5 months. Total Group LFL sales (ex the key acquisitions of DTLR and MIG) are up 5% YoY, in-line with the 4 months run rate. This implies positive UK growth, which is focused on recycling stores into larger space. The US is negative but on an improving trend (approaching flat) as it is ‘comp-ing’ the tail end of last year’s stimulus cheques. Europe is growing at mid double digit. 1H gross margin is expected to be consistent with last year as promotional activity has been limited.
Availability continues to improve though not yet perfect, with the US most affected. This is expected to further improve in 2H, in-line with the commentary from Nike and Adidas that supply chains will be back to normal by the autumn.
No change to INVe forecast. For FY23, we assume JD offsets £50m of last year’s one-off £100m profit benefit from the fiscal stimulus. We also assume a £10m improvement in UK EBIT YoY. Management is on-track with openings/project plans and continues to expect to open a store a week in Europe and to have c.140 JD stores in the US (currently 103). Rebadging continues to deliver 20% sales uplift.
Shares trade on a very undemanding valuation (CY22E PE 11.2x; CY23E 10.8x) with a disconnect in our view between valuation, JD fundamental performance and attractive strategic opportunities.