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08 Feb 2023
JD Sports Fashion : The next growth chapter - Buy

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JD Sports Fashion : The next growth chapter - Buy
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 76.2 -0.4 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 3,896m
- Published:
08 Feb 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
17 -
Improved visibility on the JD brand-growth runway. Mr Schultz, appointed CEO in September, set out a ‘JD brand first’ five-year growth strategy and painted a picture of self-funded, sustainable double-digit revenue growth on average over the five-year period, which will come at no cost to profitability.
Financial targets seem achievable, in our view, with double-digit revenue growth and double-digit PBT margin guidance being the main ones.
Material step-up in JD new store openings with plans for 250-350 JD stores p.a. (including franchises), primarily focused on its existing US and Europe markets. Management gave store target ranges by region which, if achieved, would imply JD net new store growth of 7.7% to 9.8% p.a. on a five-year CAGR basis. Our scenario analysis, which takes into consideration LFL growth, suggests this space growth is equivalent to a JD brand revenue CAGR of 13.4% to 15.2%. We estimate this would equate to Group revenue growth of c.12-14% p.a., allowing for a slower growth rate from the rest of the Group.
Less was said on the other three pillars of the strategy, on which we expect to hear more at a later date. While there are likely to be further disposals, another growth angle will be the ‘complementary concepts’, which include Shoe Palace/DTLR (US), ISRG (Iberia), Size? and Go Outdoors. The strategy also includes becoming a best-in-class omnichannel player, driving the JD brand digitally and building on its strong brand partnerships.
We upgrade FY25E PBT by 4.2% to reflect the step-up in growth plans. FY24 guidance is unchanged as it will take time to ramp up the opening programme.
Valuation (CY23E/CY24E PE 14.4x/12.8x) looks undemanding for a business that we believe is capable of delivering double-digit growth for the foreseeable future and where we still see upside risk to our forecasts. BUY reiterated.