Initial Equity Trading Comments - 10 May 2023

Rank Group (RNK) - Buy at 97p - A slot in the arm!

Rank Group - Recovery potential and operational gearing

Rank Group has faced numerous external challenges since 2020: the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic and tighter regulatory requirements, in particular the negative effects of required affordability restrictions, have been followed by the recent cost of living crisis and higher inflation. These external challenges have masked the group’s underlying transformation, which is extending and improving the product offer, while making the organisation more efficient to drive future growth and innovations

Diversification and scale for online success

The global online gaming market generated c £40bn of gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 2018 and newly regulating markets (the US) are expected to contribute to 7% CAGR to 2023 (according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC)). However, while regulated markets have provided significant opportunities for operators to date, government intervention remains a constant threat and legislation is tightening. Some mature markets (notably the UK) have been raising taxes and implementing regulatory burdens, which inc

UK gaming sector: Regulator delivers a harsh verdict

After many months of procrastination, the UK government has finally delivered a verdict on the fixed odds betting terminals (FOBTs), reducing stake limits from £100 to £2. Although not entirely a surprise, this is a disappointing result for the industry and will likely entail more than 3,500 shop closures. Also, while a decision has been made, there is still much uncertainty regarding timing and implementation. For online operators, there is a further blow, in the form of potential increases in

Rank Group - Weakness in Grosvenor affects EBIT

Rank’s trading update (13 weeks to 1 April) showed 17% growth in Digital, but the core Venues disappointed, with Mecca down 2% and Grosvenor down 9% on a like-for-like basis. The shortfall was largely due to fewer customer visits, as well as a lower gross win margin from VIPs. The company expects the weaker consumer environment to continue and has now guided to FY18 clean EBIT of £76-78m vs previous consensus of £83m. We have adjusted our forecasts to the lower end of guidance. The stock has dro

Rank Group - Operational efficiencies keep forecasts intact

Similar to last year’s trends, Rank reported that total Venues l-f-l revenues declined by 1%, mainly due to lower customer visits. This was offset by a 16% increase in Digital, where Mecca digital has clearly turned the corner. To reflect the lighter result in Venues, we have lowered our FY18 and FY19 revenue estimates by c 2-3%, but improved operational efficiencies mean that our profit forecasts are largely unchanged. The business model remains highly cash generative, with £4m net cash achieve

- Mecca digital picking up growth

The 19% growth in digital revenue is the key highlight in Rank Group’s trading update (16 weeks to 15 October). Grosvenor digital was up 34% and, encouragingly, Mecca digital has moved to double-digit growth (up 11% vs 2% in FY17). In a continuation of previous trends, Venues l-f-l revenues declined by 1%, leading to a 2% l-f-l growth in total group revenues. Notwithstanding the decline in Venues, the core business is highly cash generative, enabling progressive dividends, as well as potential M

Digital growth offsets Venues decline

Rank Group’s FY17 results highlighted the growth potential of its Digital division. Online revenue grew 15.3%, with an impressive operating margin of 20.4% (vs our 14.2% estimate). By contrast, Venues were slightly light, with like-for-like revenues declining by 0.7%, due to fewer customer visits and tighter due diligence. However, Venues’ KPIs have improved in H2 over H1 and FY18 has started well. Our headline revenue forecasts are broadly unchanged, although we have lowered our FY18 operating

A leading multi-channel operator

Rank Group aims to be the UK’s leading omni-channel gaming operator and, as outlined at its capital markets day, the strategies for its Venues and Digital verticals are clearly interlinked. With an open architecture platform, Digital is well positioned to leverage the existing retail customer base and a single wallet (piloting in autumn 2017) could be a game changer for Grosvenor digital. Meanwhile, the core Venues businesses are being reinvigorated and remain highly cash generative. With its pr

Digital revenues are back on track

In line with expectations, l-f-l revenues (46 weeks to 14 May) increased 1%, with a 13% growth in digital offsetting a slight revenue decline in Grosvenor Casinos’ and Mecca’s venues. Earlier platform issues have been resolved and we expect digital revenue growth to accelerate, with the H118 introduction of a single wallet fuelling market share gains. The core business is highly cash generative, enabling progressive dividends, as well as potential M&A. Despite this, the stock trades at a calenda

Play your cards right

Rank has a unique opportunity to leverage leading UK high street casino and bingo brands online. With platform issues resolved, its digital casino is growing strongly and the introduction of a single wallet later this year could be a game changer. Economic pressures are weighing on venues’ results, but they are highly cash generative. An expected move into net cash by end FY18 underpins a progressive dividend policy and gives Rank plenty of firepower to participate in industry M&A as opportuniti

Well positioned for future success

Strong performance against tough market conditions

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.

Marks & Spencer+ (MKS, House Stock at 255p) - 7Y FS HSBC UK tie-up– another brick in the wall

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

LIBERUM: Safestay: First management contract opens up new revenue stream

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

React Inititation of Coverage

React Group is a well-managed, growing UK services business with a high degree of recurring revenues (c87%).

SSP Group+ (SSPG, House Stock at 218p) - Further progress expected in H1

PROGRESSIVE: Zoo Digital: Recovery underway and a significant contract

Today’s trading statement from ZOO highlights a ramp-up in demand following the end to the industry-wide strikes of last year. ZOO struck a note of caution in its January update regarding the timing of orders. However new productions are starting to translate into a healthy order pipeline, with a good recovery in revenue anticipated in H1 FY25. The update guides to revenue of at least $40m for the year to March 2024, ahead of our estimate at $36.8m. We have improved our adjusted EBITDA loss marg

ME Group - Modernising and growing the estate driving growth

During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main