Disappointing full-year results after a 9m trading statement that had seemed encouraging. Adjusted operating profit came in short at £901m, however the adjusted EPS came in perfectly in line with the consensus. On the positive side, adjusted operating cash flow came in slightly above our expectations. However, despite a good level of cost reductions targeted for FY20 (c. £350m), the group expects the FY20 adjusted operating cash flow to be lower than in FY19 (£1.6-1.8bn versus FY19: £1.8bn). We confirm our cautious view.
Companies: Centrica
Government bans on new fossil fueled vehicles in many major economies are likely to drive significant growth in electric vehicles (“EVs”) over the next twenty years. This will create growth in electricity demand from EV charging. The volume of energy to be supplied creates opportunities for both supply companies and generators and the provision of charge points is already creating a new industry. However, the timing of this demand puts pressure on local distribution infrastructure. While smart charging and vehicle to grid technology offer solutions, we believe these will only be partial given likely charging behaviour and as a result there will be demand for additional grid capacity and for other solutions. These other solutions include charger located storage and distributed generation.
Companies: CNA NG/ YU/ DRX GOOD RED SMS IKA AFC
FY18 had raised concerns about the sustainability of the dividend, and Centrica has finally cut it by nearly 60% after the catastrophic figures for H1. The group has announced its intention to exit from oil and gas production in order to refocus its activities on services around the transition to low-carbon. The group tried to reassure about the outlook for H2, confirming its cash flow and net debt full-year targets.
In our last model update we affirmed that, in the long run, a recovery was still possible, but that we preferred to remain cautious for the time being and wait for some news flow positive enough to cause an inflection point. Unfortunately, in the absence of a positive element, we have now decided to review our approaches and adopt a more conservative view.
Centrica delivered a mixed set of results FY18, adjusted operating cash flow and net debt were within the target ranges, but EPS is 2.6% lower than expected. Due to the UK default tariff cap the low volumes in E&P and nuclear, group downgraded AOCF guidance for 2019 is 1.8-2.0, or 13.6% lower than the required average pace of growth to reach the 2018-20 target.
Centrica released a weak trading statement. Competition remained intense in the UK during the four months to October. The company lost 372k accounts in its Home business, while the E&P business suffered from unplanned outages forcing Spirit Energy to cut its 2018 production target by 5%. However, the group confirmed its 12p dividend target for 2018, ensuring a comfy 8.8% yield at today’s price, thus limiting the downside risk.
Centrica released a rather weak set of H1 results. EBITDA was broadly flat while adjusted operating profit was down 4% as profit recovery in E&P was more than offset by tough market conditions in the Retail segment. The group confirmed its FY18 objectives and expects to pay a stable dividend in 2018 (12p).
Centrica released a short Q1 trading update. Centrica’s management said that the overall performance has been good in the year to date, driven by higher demand for gas following the colder weather and confirmed its set of FY targets (including the 12p dividend), with revenue growth expected to be weighted towards the second half of the year.
• The Centrica Business division hammers the group’s results. • The company lost 5.2% of its clients (-1.4m) in the customer segment and -7.1% in the Business one (-100k). • Price cap should hurt 2019 margins (and earnings), but impact unknown. • Reassurance on the dividend side and OCF guidance (£2.1-2.3bn) is a positive.
The group has stated in its trading update that it expects adjusted EPS for 2017 to be close to 12.5p, which is 17% below the 15.2p we previously expected. It confirmed its adjusted net debt target at £2.5-3bn and operating cash flows to be above £2bn. It has also raised its cost-cutting target for the year to £300m, from the previous £250m. It maintains its capex target at close to £1bn (with £500m for E&P). Moreover, driven by the group’s exposure to the retail market, it confirmed that the company lost 823k customers in the last three months. In addition to this, the group has stated that during the transition phase towards greater customer exposure and diversification to improve margins, Centrica would be forced to have a dividend cover below its historic levels.
Centrica’s solid H1 numbers and 12.5% electricity tariff increase announced yesterday morning were both in line with market expectations. Operationally, the business was resilient given this year’s warm weather and challenging competitive dynamics. The political impact of the tariff hike was mitigated by protecting 200,000 vulnerable customers, a move we view as sensible given especially high levels of political risk in UK retail energy currently. The bigger story for Centrica shareholders remains the long-term shift away from upstream ‘asset businesses’ to tech-enabled customer businesses. Yesterday’s announcements do not change that strategy and the reality is that Centrica is very early in its strategic change of direction.
Centrica reported a mixed set of results for the first half. The company achieved higher revenue (+7% to £14.29bn) and EBITDA (+2% to £1,293m) despite unfavourable weather conditions and competitive pressures. However, the group saw an 11% contraction in adjusted net earnings to £449m. As a direct consequence, it announced a 12.5% increase in the price of electricity on the British Gas standard tariff, effective from mid-September onwards. This is the first increase in four years, while gas prices will remain the same. Adjusted operating cash flow (AOCF) fell by 9% to £1,242m, reflecting a one-off working capital inflow in 2016. However, net debt has improved to £2,941m (a 22% reduction), on the back of the portfolio rotation strategy. Moreover, the group confirmed its full-year guidance as its strategic transformation and efficiency programme are well on track: adjusted operating cash flow >£2bn net debt in the £2.5-3bn range by year-end a further £250m efficiency savings The company proposed a flat interim dividend of £3.6p/share (30% of the FY2016 dividend), in line with historical practices.
The group has provided strong results given the conditions, beating forecasts across the board on its 2016 performance. Revenue decreased by 3% yoy to £27.1bn, but the contraction is less dramatic than expected. Adjusted operating profit, on the other hand, increased by 3.8% yoy and is 6% above market consensus, with adjusted net income on the same path with 3.8% yoy growth to €895m. EPS decreased by 2% yoy due to the issued shares and the diluting effect of the capital increase made last year to finance the acquisition in the retail business. On a reported basis, the company had an operating profit of £2,486m and £1,672m in net income, a strong performance. The best part came from the operating cash flow, the main objective of the company, as this grew by 19% yoy to £2,686m. The E&P business is in positive territory with a positive free cash flow. As a result, net debt decreased by 27% to £3.5bn, far better than previously expected. The dividend payment will be 12p/share, in line with last year’s, but below expectations given that the expected improvement on cash flows should have benefited shareholder remuneration, but it didn’t. Operating cash flows are expected to be above £2bn, which implies a contraction in the performance achieved over the year. Investments will be limited to £1bn for 2017.
As rates rise, "yieldy" stocks require careful consideration. Sustainability/track record key.
Companies: AHTDCGADMPAYCNAISATQQ/IIICAPCCARDAGRJMATTRIGUBM
Centrica has published its Q3 16 trading update, raising its guidance expectations for 2016 with operating cash flows now expected in the £2.4-2.6bn range (+20%) rather than the £2bn earlier. Moreover, due to the gas assets’ better performance, benefits from the cost-cutting programme, and a strong performance in energy marketing and trading, the group expects the full-year EPS to be around 16.5p, whereas the market estimates something close to 15.4p (+7.1%). Nonetheless, the new expectations imply that EPS is expected to decrease by 4% yoy, although this is less than previously expected (-10.5%), which represents a substantial improvement.
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Strix has released an AGM statement indicating that trading in the early part of the year has been solid, the new financing facilities have been put in place, product development is on track with 14 new products released during the year and the factory move remains on schedule and to budget. The current trading period is an important one and the scheduled trading update 23rd July should provide more colour on the underlying performance as well as the early indications from the new products already released and the outlook for those that are scheduled to be released in H2. The resilience of the Strix business has been reaffirmed during the current situation with financial guidance having been maintained and the final dividend committed to, a 10% increase yoy.
Companies: Strix Group
Despite some initial integration issues with WatBio (since resolved), Filta generated strong organic growth (+16% YoY) and delivered results in line with expectations. Given ongoing uncertainty around the pace at which self-isolation measures will be eased, we maintain our Hold rating, and will look to reinstate forecasts once visibility improves.
Companies: Filta Group
Last month’s update reported +15% LFL sales growth YTD (Feb & March) and also material margin improvement in areas that have received attention. Near-term uncertainty was however flagged, as Covid has impacted project fulfilment. In this context, today’s update is therefore encouraging, as LFL growth has continued through April – meaning +13% LFL sales growth YTD. April benefitted from service and install revenue (as well as recurring, ~£5m pa.). On this basis, CKT is therefore tracking considerably ahead of the company’s ‘bear case’ scenario. Looking ahead we are cautiously optimistic - as while revenue is set to decline in May - CKT mention “customer plans to resume installation projects”, particularly in Healthcare, where opportunities are described as strong. Timing and volume remain hard to predict however. Costs continue to be closely monitored and managed and as evidence, cash remains strong, at £12.8m – only marginally down from 31st March (£13.1m) and £14.3m as at January’s year-end. Prelims now expected 16th June.
Companies: Checkit
TClarke's trading update is refreshingly positive in all key aspects of investors' current COVID fears and hopes. The decision to fully pay the 2019 final dividend sustains income attractiveness (4% yield on the final alone), the avoidance of trading losses in the teeth of the industry lockdown period (after a profitable Q1/20) demonstrates resilience whilst maintenance of net cash balances through April and May illustrate a robustness of cash flows despite reduced activity levels. It has also maintained the order book and has moved quickly to re-structure the cost base ensuring that margin recovery is not entirely dependant upon market improvement. Prudently and we believe reasonably, we are removing all forward forecasts until visibility on revenue recovery and productivity rates into H2/20 become clearer. However, TClarke's operational strengths, financial robustness and cash coverage of dividend in the most testing of circumstances gives us renewed confidence to uphold a Buy recommendation.
Companies: TClarke
FY results ahead due to a waiver of the management bonuses and final dividend is proposed. Current trading is impacted by COVID but there are clear signs of improvement.
Companies: Paypoint
In the midst of a crisis, Judges has made what we think is an excellent acquisition in a high growth sector (lithium battery testing). Heath Scientific fits all of Judges’ acquisition criteria and is a business that is well known to management. We think that the current crisis may well throw up more opportunities and, with its strong balance sheet, Judges is well positioned to capitalise on this. FY20E EPS increased by 1.8% and FY21E by 3.2%. DCF based TP raised from 5245p to 5380p. CY21E PE 26.3x. Buy.
Companies: Judges Scientific
Judges Scientific, the group focused on acquiring and developing companies in the scientific instrument sector, has announced the acquisition of UK based ‘Health Scientific Ltd', a world leading maker, and global exporter, of calorimetry instruments. The initial cash consideration equates to £5.3m, with a further £2.0m cash earnout if profits hit £1.22m in 2020. The business generated £4.4m of revenue and an adjusted EBIT of £0.88m (20% EBIT margin) to April 2019, and is expected to have an even stronger year to April 2020, suggesting a ‘6x EBIT takeout multiple' if the earnout target is hit.
CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 3.1p/£10.1m) | Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 1.675p/£12.0m) | MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 38.5p/£33.8m) | Newmark Security plc* (NWT.L, 1.05p/£4.9m) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 95.0p/£8.5m)
Companies: CPX GFIN MWE NWT MIRA
Costain has raised £100m of gross proceeds. We reduce FY 20 and 21 FD EPS by 45% and 59% due to the dilution.
Companies: Costain Group
Gateley has issued a solid year end trading update despite inevitable COVID-19 related disruption in the last two months of the year (to 30th April). Revenue for the year will be not less than £108.0m (FY19: £103.5m). As anticipated, the breadth and depth of the Group’s legal and consulting service lines have underpinned a resilient outcome with the transition to remote working going smoothly. Swift action has been taken to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, whilst keeping teams intact to ensure the business is well equipped to take advantage of opportunities that arise as the UK economy moves into and out of recession. As we noted in our Stocks for Unprecedented Times note, Gateley has an exceptional track record, achieving revenue growth every year since 1986. This includes steady growth through the 2000-2001 recession, and a strong year for the business in 2010, demonstrating the Group’s resilience through the economic cycle. We remain of the view that Gateley will emerge strongly from the current crisis and expect to reintroduce forecasts as visibility improves later on in the year.
Companies: Gateley
Trading has recovered from the initial hit from COVID-19, with improving B2B activity adding to strong B2C trends. Revenue has been better than previously expected at both DX Freight and DX Express, with this now running at 10-15% below normal levels for this time of the year, compared with the initial 33% impact at the commencement of the lockdown.
Companies: DX Group
Symphony Environmental has reported FY December 2019 results. Whilst the Company did experience a single digit fall in revenues, this has been well trailed in previous announcements, relating to inventory adjustments by some customers waiting for legislative clarification in certain markets. The Company did move into loss making territory (£0.6m at the operating level), but the balance sheet was able to more than adequately absorb this aided by the £1.9m strategic equity investment announced in 2019. Net cash (excluding lease liabilities to compare on a like for like basis post IFRS 16) stood at £0.9m vs. net debt of £0.1m at the corresponding period end.
Companies: Symphony Environmental Technologies
The biggest takeaway from Sureserve Group’s interim result was its strong cash performance in the first half, with net debt falling to £3.5m at end March (£12.9m at end March 2018). This sets a solid base for the group to ride out the disruption of the lockdown. Our focus is on the outlook, with H1 only having eight days of impact from the lockdown. We have reduced our estimates for FY20, with the bulk of the revenue cut from £230m to £210m being a £13m cut in the Energy Services division. The cut to PBT from £9.8m to £9.1m is less severe, reflecting the improving efficiency in the Compliance division and the cost mitigation efforts of the group. With the long-term investment themes of regulatory compliance and energy efficiency likely to stay in focus, we see solid support for the group’s business and our FY21 numbers reflect the start of a bounce back in activity.
Companies: Sureserve Group
Avation is a lessor of 48 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. Intra-day yesterday, the group announced that, as a result of the present uncertain backdrop caused by COVID-19, the Board had withdrawn from the previously announced strategic review and formal sale process, and that it was no longer in active discussions with any interested parties. The key reasons behind this were 1) the present uncertainty meaning that an attractive valuation was seen as unlikely to be achieved at this present moment in time and 2) the distraction of the process in the day to day operational activities of the business. Petards supplies advanced security and surveillance systems to the Rail, Defence and Traffic Technology markets. Intra-day yesterday, the group confirmed that its RTS Solutions subsidiary had secured a multi-year renewal agreement for the provision of software support services to one of its major rail customers. Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has released full year results to 31 December 2019, alongside providing an update on progress against the present COVID-19 backdrop. In line with the market updates provided in February and April, group revenue in the year increased by 3.2% to £7.1m, whilst revenue from continuing operations, excluding the Onboard business that was disposed of in the year, increased by 7.2% to £6.7m, driven by traction being gained with new products and services. The gross margin in the year increased by 280bps to 53.9% reflecting the greater proportion of software and service income. This resulted in a trading loss after tax before exceptionals of £89k, which post exceptionals of £412k that predominantly related to the disposal of OnBoard, resulted in a loss after tax of £501k. As previously reported, the year-end net cash position stood at £850k, which reflected an increase of £554k in the year; this post £1.1m of new product development expenditure and cash costs associated with the disposal.
Companies: AVAP TST PEG
Filta Group (Filta) announced FY’19 results pretty much in line with our numbers. Adjusted EBITDA was £3.2m, vs. our £3.3m estimate, and revenue was £24.9m, vs. our £25.1m expectation. These figures confirmed that the integration of Watbio was back on track and the business was trading well until COVID-19 struck. Most of Filta’s customers are currently closed, but the company is optimistic that they will bounce back one distancing restrictions are lifted. We have removed our 2020 forecasts.
