LIBERUM: New Energy Nuggets: Hydrogen - the future is green

1H23 : Retail earnings surge by 900% but are these tariffs sustainable?

Centrica published a very strong 1H23 to June 30 with a net operating profit up by 55% on the back of a surge in British Gas Energy operating profit to £969m (1H22: £98m, 1H21: 530£) leading the British newspaper Daily Express to deploy the headline ‘Daylight robbery’ while the current tariffs are becoming politically difficult to justify.

FY2022: Finally, the first dividend payment since 2019!

Centrica released a historical year, amid unprecedentedly high energy markets that supported earnings in the trading activities but also the Upstream business unit. Centrica decided to proceed with the first dividend payment since 2019 as well as an increase in its share buyback operation. Also, criticism concerning these exceptional results should lead the group to reach a key player position in the customer help and support segment, and increase investment in retail and services and solutions.

H1 22: the dividend is back as earnings soar

Centrica released a strong set of results with material year-on-year improvements. As expected, earnings were supported by high and volatile commodity prices, in particular for E&P and nuclear. Operating profit reached £857m (+512%). More importantly, the group resumed shareholder distribution with a £1 interim dividend and a further £2 expected by the end of the year. Bullish view confirmed… also our cautiousness about windfall taxes.

FY21: E&P lifts profits, outlook is positive even if low visibility

Centrica’s FY21 results beat expectations as the E&P subsidiary Spirit Energy benefited from surging commodity prices for oil and gas. Even if the group remains confident regarding the 2022 outlook, the current markets’ volatility enlarge the range of possible outcomes and reduce visibility. Despite the strong figures and an impressive net cash position, no dividend will be proposed for 2021. Instead, Centrica is paving the way for a dividend in respect of 2022 and possible share repurchase pr

Nuke optionality

What if the best solution for the energy transition were … nuclear power? Nuke is back at the heart of political debates in the context of the current energy crisis and massive but insufficient investments in renewables. This short review provides an overview of nuclear power in Europe and speculates on options. This ‘nuke optionality’, hinging on a favourable green taxonomy, is a game-changer for EDF, Centrica, Fortum but also Engie, Iberdrola, Enel and EDP.

H1 21: structural changes before operational profitability

Flat but unsurprising results from Centrica in the first half of the year, as favourable weather conditions and commodity prices were offset by the COVID-19 impact, British Gas engineer strikes and sharp trading conditions. On the positive side, the sale process of Spirit Energy has made progress, and a CMD will be held on 16 November 2021. However, nothing new on the dividend side. Neutral view confirmed due to so many uncertainties surrounding the stock.

FY20 - a weak set of figures

Affected by volumes which were lower than their long-term average and weak commodity prices for the upstream division, the group published a disappointing set of FY20 figures. Although the group’s efforts on its cost structure are notable, we maintain a cautious view on inventory due to the economic uncertainty that could erode cash generation (due to an increase in working capital requirements, among other things).

Disappointing H2 19, poor FY20 outlook

Disappointing full-year results after a 9m trading statement that had seemed encouraging. Adjusted operating profit came in short at £901m, however the adjusted EPS came in perfectly in line with the consensus. On the positive side, adjusted operating cash flow came in slightly above our expectations. However, despite a good level of cost reductions targeted for FY20 (c. £350m), the group expects the FY20 adjusted operating cash flow to be lower than in FY19 (£1.6-1.8bn versus FY19: £1.8bn). We

STATE OF CHARGE - INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN EV CHARGING

Government bans on new fossil fueled vehicles in many major economies are likely to drive significant growth in electric vehicles (“EVs”) over the next twenty years. This will create growth in electricity demand from EV charging. The volume of energy to be supplied creates opportunities for both supply companies and generators and the provision of charge points is already creating a new industry. However, the timing of this demand puts pressure on local distribution infrastructure. While smart c

CEO steps down, dividend slashed

FY18 had raised concerns about the sustainability of the dividend, and Centrica has finally cut it by nearly 60% after the catastrophic figures for H1. The group has announced its intention to exit from oil and gas production in order to refocus its activities on services around the transition to low-carbon. The group tried to reassure about the outlook for H2, confirming its cash flow and net debt full-year targets.

Renold - Strong end to FY24: EPS up 11%. Robust FY25: EPS up 27.6%

The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Q1 Operating Results

Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k

Billington Holdings - Record result boosts dividend; forecasts upgraded

FY23 results show very strong growth over FY22, driven by strong Structural Steel activity, with results slightly ahead of upgraded profit expectations, while stronger than expected cash flow resulted in an unexpectedly generous dividend of 33p (offering a FY23 yield of 7.0%). The group now has net cash of £22.1m and is debt free and is therefore in a strong position for potential M&A activity. Following the recent £90m of new orders to increase the order book to record levels we conservatively

Plant Health Care - China distribution with AMVAC

Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

discoverIE - Back to organic growth

discoverIE’s March year-end update confirms a strong operational performance in challenging markets. Following two years when sales increased by +48%, FY 2024 Group sales were +1% ahead of 2023 at CER (reported -3%) driven by a +2% contribution from acquisitions and organic -1%. As expected, organic growth returned in the later part of the year (Q4 +2%, +11% sequentially) and the order book has reverted to normalised levels of c.4.5 months’ sales, which – combined with a continuing strong pipeli

Severfield - Multiple positives should excite investors

Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear

Warns on brine supply costs

SP Angel . Morning View . Copper prices hold higher as China processing fees fall below $0/t amid low feedstock availability

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Targeted acquisition strategy aids growth path

Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.

LIBERUM: Severfield: Erratum: Better EPS and cashflow, and buyback

Invinity Energy Systems - Update on Strategic Investment

Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Step change in European and Indian outlook

Severfield’s full-year results to March will be ‘slightly above’ the Board’s expectations, according to today’s trading update, with net debt significantly better. We maintain our PBT estimates for both forecast years, which are ahead of consensus, but reduce our net debt for FY24E. Record orders were boosted by the steel specialist’s European operations, after last year’s Voortman acquisition, while the Indian JV has seen ‘another step up in profitability’. The group has also launched its first

Clean and competitive fertiliser