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Ageas released a surprising set of Q3 22 results in our view. Although it was negatively impacted by market turmoil in Asia and high inflation in the UK and Turkey, Ageas had warned about these effects a few days ago. Embedding these factors into the consensus (which had been published before the warning), Ageas would have beat estimates.
Companies: Ageas (AGS:EBR)ageas SA/NV (AGS:BRU)
Ageas released a very strong set of Q2 results. Carried by Belgium and Asia, the firm beat market expectations. On a HY basis, Ageas remains in line with our expectations. Prospects for additional share buybacks have been tempered but we expect a dividend towards the high-end of the guidance.
Companies: ageas SA/NV (AGS:BRU)ageas SA/NV (0Q99:LON)
Ageas’ Q1 22 results yielded mixed feelings. On the one hand, P&C has been surprisingly good but could revert to lower levels, we believe. On the other hand, Asia has been disappointing and could remain disappointing for quite some time considering the local context.
Solvency improved and the trend could offer perspectives of shareholder rewards.
Ageas’ Q3 results have been surprisingly strong, beating by far consensus estimates. However, the deteriorating solvency ratio coupled with guidance left unchanged, while the insurer could have shown more optimism over the year-end result, leaves a glimpse of potential worries.
Ageas’ H1 21 results are not what we would have expected. Asia’s Life business came in disappointing and Non-life is expected to be heavily impacted in the next quarter. But, overall, the outlook remains the same and the €150m share buy-back will cheer investors up. Tough times to go through but we remain positive in the medium term.
Ageas’ performance for the first quarter of the year is very positive. We believe the worst turmoils to be past (Turkey FX impact, COVID-19 claims and high volatility on the markets) and, coupled with the recovery in economies and strong capital generation, we see the rest of 2021 as looking better than expected.
Ageas released net profit at €1,141m. The Non-Life business contributed significantly to this performance (up 49% to €391m), while the Life divisions suffered and posted a 32% drop to €569m. We appreciate the resilient top line and the €2.65 to be distributed per share. Ageas also announced the acquisition of a 40% stake in the Turkish Life insurance and pensions company AvivaSA for €142m. The insurer enters a new market, with rapid growth and without problems of low interest rates.
Despite the pandemic, Ageas was very active during 2020 to reinforce its positions in existing markets and to clean its balance sheet. There are no fears about the capacity of the insurer to generate cash and to distribute a dividend for 2020 earnings.
Companies: ageas SA/NV
Q2 20 net profit stood at €339m, -4% yoy. H1 earnings increased by 31% to €791m thanks to the FRESH operation in Q1 (€332m). Pressures continued on the Life business (-36% in net result to €309m), contrary to Non-Life’s earnings (+56% to €181m) thanks to lower claims in Motor and Accident & Health segments. The Solvency II ratio was 192%. The insurer announced the distribution of an interim dividend of €2.38/share. Resilient performance from the Belgian company.
The solid net profit (€452m, up 80% yoy) was the result of the operation on FRESH securities. The pandemic hit the insurance result, which dropped by 56% to €113m. The operating margin in the Life business declined and the high combined ratio (99.7%) resulted from bad weather conditions. The resilient Solvency II ratio (193% on 30 April) sustains the intention of management to distribute an intermediary dividend of €2.38/share later in 2020, to reach the initially announced dividend of €2.65/sha
Ageas reported a FY 19 net income of €979m, up 21% yoy. The Q4 was difficult with a 34% drop in the net result to €102m. Earnings were driven by Life operations (up 65% yoy to €841m). By market, Belgium and Asia contributed up to 96% of the group’s net result. The Solvency II ratio stood at 217.3%, but it does not include the impact of the transaction on Fresh securities (-12%). The proposed dividend exceeded estimates at €2.65/share.
Ageas posted a 4% increase in 9M inflows to €11,680m. The growth of the top line was driven by Non-Life business (+7% to €3,453m in 9M), while the Life operations were behind the better net result (+44% to €667m in 9M). Asia and Belgium were the main contributors to the group’s profits (>85%). The Solvency II ratio stood at 199%. The results were slightly better than expected, but we prefer to remain cautious given the possible adverse weather conditions in Q4.
Ageas posted an 4.4% increase in its inflows to €21,018m thanks to both the Life and Non-Life branches. The net result was up 37.3% to €354m, driven by an excellent Q2 for the Life business which recovered after a difficult Q1 19. The General Account released a positive result (€5m). The Solvency II ratio stood at c. 201%. We will be revising up our estimates for the full year.
Ageas posted an 8% increase in its inflows to €12,808m, driven by both the Life and Non-Life businesses. The net result was up 1.2% to €251m, saved by lower losses from the General Account (€-7m vs. €-52m in Q1 18). While the decrease in the Non-Life business was expected, as it is under transformation, the Life earnings were hit by timing differences on capital gains. The Solvency II ratio stood at 194%. Released figures are broadly in line with estimates.
Ageas reported a net income of €809m, 2% lower than our estimates. Q4 was difficult with a 52% drop in the net result to €133m. The poor performance of the equity markets during Q4 affected the Life result (-70% to €45m). The Non-Life division also suffered (-29% to €88m). The Solvency ratio stood at 214% and the proposed dividend met our estimates at €2.20/share. We will keep our positive trend in the insurer’s future operating performances.
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While the management reiterated its full-year guidance, the third quarter results confirmed that interest rate increases also have a negative side in the form of negative equity adjustments and a looming asset quality deterioration.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc
The FDA has announced it has completed the first pre-market consultation for a food product made from cultured animal cells. The submission, made by Upside Foods, and FDA response means that the agency accepts Upside's data package and conclusion that its cultivated chicken product is safe to eat. This clearly represents a significant achievement for Upside Foods and a major milestone for the cultivated meat sector in general, marking the first significant regulatory milestone in a major jurisdi
Companies: Agronomics Limited
Marlowe has released a robust set of H1/23E results, with strong organic growth (+8% YoY), improved Adj EBITDA margins (+100bps YoY to 18.8%), and confirmation that it is trading “slightly ahead” of expectations for full year Adj EBITDA. We nudge up our FY23E Adj EBITDA by £1m to £82m, leave FY24E Adj EBITDA unchanged (at £93m), but lower Adj Diluted EPS in both years (by 9% and 11% respectively), primarily to account for higher interest rates on increased borrowings (used to fund recent M&A). D
Companies: Marlowe Plc
Companies: H&T Group plc
Dish of the day
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?**
Kistos Holdings plc, intends to join AIM. The Company was incorporated to act as a new holding company for the group companies 0f Kistos plc (KIST), a holding company with the objective of creating value for its investors through the acquisition and management of companies or businesses in the energy sector. Anticipated Market Cap £327m. Expected 22 Dec 2022.
AT85 Global Mid-Market Infrastr
Companies: SEE JSE MKA EAH ABDP MRL TENG KIBO
Alkemy’s 100%-owned subsidiary Tees Valley Lithium (TVL) has received full planning permission to build its planned world-class, low carbon, lithium hydroxide refining facility at the Wilton International Chemical Park in the Teesside Freeport, UK. Our indicative valuation increases to 1228p/sh (£12.28/sh) from 614p/sh previously. Details in the note...
Companies: Alkemy Capital Investments Plc
Palace Capital has released interim results to the end of September reporting adjusted profit before tax of £3.5m (1HFY22 £4.0m) and adjusted EPS of 7.9p (1HFY22 8.7p), mainly reflecting rising financing costs. The dividend was maintained at the current quarterly run rate of 3.75p and net debt was held broadly flat. EPRA NTA per share fell 8.7% to 356p. The sale of the industrial portfolio remains paused but smaller commercial sales continue together with the sale of apartments at Hudson Quarter
Companies: Palace Capital plc
Augmentum Fintech has reported stable NAV per share at 155.0p during 1H23 (flat HoH, +5% YoY). The 19.3% IRR since IPO is marginally below the Group’s 20% Internal Target Return, unsurprising given a challenging market environment. Broadly stable portfolio valuations come as particularly encouraging with underlying investee performances (100% avg. revenue growth for Top 10 assets) largely offsetting multiple compression (EV/NTM Sales from 5.7x to 4.2x). Following the realisation of AUGM’s invest
Companies: Augmentum Fintech PLC
Singer Capital Markets
Dish of the day
Looking Glass Labs (NFTX) joins the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. The company is engaged in digital agency specialising in immersive XR metaverse design, non fungible token architecture and virtual asset royalty streams. Looking Glass Labs is currently listed on the NEO Exchange (Canada). Market Cap £18.8m.
EDX Medical Group joins the Access Segment of AQSE Growth Market. (Formerly TECC Capital plc) EDX operates a molecular biology and diagnostics laboratory
Companies: RUA WYN MOS VAST AEO MTPH TEK TLY ARK
Tatton is delivering strong organic growth, despite bear market conditions. In the 6 months to 30 September 2022 TAM attracted £907m of net inflows, and grew group revenue 15.1%, EPS by 12.9% and DPS by 12.5%.
Companies: Tatton Asset Management Plc
Feature article: A different kind of beat: Boyzone, 1996
Quoted company engagement with retail investors – a new world
This month's feature article has been written in collaboration with The Quoted Companies Alliance.
Retail investors used to be the second-class citizens of the stock market. The bulk of their money was held in funds or pension schemes where a professional took all the decisions and where they owned only a tiny part of the equity market directly. They also tended
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Hardman & Co
If one looks through the current interest rate cycle and trusts that inflation will be brought under control at some point within an investable timescale, then the hope is that as the cost of capital reduces real estate values will rise again. Our worst-case scenario of a 200bps move in yields and no rental growth would see valuations fall by a third. Many of the discounts that industrial and logistics property companies are trading on are currently wider than this. Couple this with the strong o
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East Imperial produces and markets premium tonics and mixers, selling to some of the world's leading hotels, bars and restaurants in APAC, the US and other countries around the world. The company was founded in New Zealand and Singapore in 2012, with a focus on building a high-quality brand to capitalise on the growing demand for premium and ultra-premium spirits and mixers. With key competitors seeking high volume growth, including through expansion into off-trade value retailers, East Imperial
Companies: East Imperial PLC
This quarter’s key observations
• Subsector performance: UK Software was the only saving grace in the technology sector during the three months to 10 November, with an aggregate share price movement of +8.1% vs. an average of -12.0% for the other five subsectors. This was largely driven by strong performances from Microfocus International (+70%, following an announced $6bn takeover by Canadian software provider OpenText) and WANdisco (+52%, after strong interim results in September and a po
Companies: CNIC SYS BIG DEVO