Aviva’s Q1 2021 trading update was positive. While operations remain flat with positive and negative performances offsetting each other in Savings & retirement and Annuities & Equity respectively, the great news come from the speed at which Aviva has been able to implement its restructuring plan. An improvement in the Solvency ratio and juicy distributions are expected.
Companies: Aviva plc
Aviva released its 2020 figures, with an operating profit of £3,161m and an IFRS profit after tax at £2,910m up 9.2% yoy. The Board will propose a final dividend of 14p/share. The insurer announced new financial targets with at least $5bn of cumulative cash remittance, £300m of cost reduction and a debt leverage ratio <30%. This update was expected regarding the sale of many operations in 2020. Aviva plans also to become a net zero carbon emissions company by 2040.
Aviva continues to execute rapidly its strategy, leaving France and Turkey. In the last few months, the insurer has realised six transactions. The cash will be used to improve business in the targeted markets (the UK, Ireland, Canada), reduce debt (£1.5bn in 2022) and to distribute a dividend to shareholders (14p per share to be proposed at the upcoming General Meeting).
With the sale of the Singaporean operations for £1.6bn, the new CEO, Amanda Blanc, shows her intention to focus rapidly on its preferred markets (the UK, Ireland and Canada). The next candidate for sale is the French unit. This transaction is more complicated than the previous one, with the necessity to obtain the agreement of Afer, its key partner in France. With potential proceeds of £2.9bn, Aviva could reduce its debts significantly and allocate more capital to the UK bulk annuity business.
H1 20 operating profit declined by 12% to £1,225m and the COVID-19 claims impact was £165m. Cash remittances from business units to the group was only £150m. The insurer said that it will focus on the UK, Ireland and Canada, which means an exit from other European and Asian markets. The Board has declared a second interim dividend in respect of the 2019 financial year of 6p/share and will inform shareholders about the 2019 final dividend in Q4 20.
With a new CEO, Amanda Blanc, Aviva’s shareholders could dream of a possible change in the group’s strategy, with a more focused insurance business. The new Chief has an opportunity to take painful decisions in a year where no one will require a high operating performance.
Aviva announced an operating profit of £3,184m (up 6% yoy) and an IFRS profit after tax at £2,663m, better than expected. The main source of operating earnings improvement was the reduction in net expenses in the UK digital business by £165m regarding 2018. The cash remittance reached £2,597m, and the insurer is on the right track to deliver one of the key 2022 targets: remitting £8.5-9bn over 2019-22. We keep our positive opinion on the stock.
Aviva presented its strategy for 2019-22. The insurer will continue to simplify its structure, reduce costs (£300m by 2022) and debts (£1.5bn) and pay a progressively increasing dividend. The insurer aims to generate operating cash of £7.5bn over 2019-22 with remitted cash to the group by different business units of £8.5-9bn, of which 50% by the UK Life division. FY 19 will benefit from lower longevity reserves with a positive impact within the range £300-400m. No convincing strategy.
Aviva posted figures in line with estimates. Operating EPS grew by 2% to 27.3p and the interim dividend was increased by 3% to 9.5p/share. Cash remittance to the Group remained high at £1,582m, benefiting from the timing of dividend payments from a number of business units. The insurer announced that it is reviewing its strategy in Asia. A possible sale of its operations is not excluded. No major changes are expected in our model.
No change in the strategic guideline for Aviva in the coming years. This is the main conclusion after the investor update published this morning by the insurer. Again, the priority will continue to be given to cost reduction (£300m on 2019-21), operating cash generation, a progressive dividend and debt reduction (£1.5bn at least by 2022). Buying Aviva remains a good choice for dividend lovers, but not necessarily a best one for investors who are looking for a growth strategy.
Aviva posted record cash remittances at £3.2bn, but without reaching the £8bn targeted for 2016-18. The capital position remained solid with a Solvency II ratio at 204%. The Board decided to distribute a final dividend of 20.75p/share, bringing the dividend for the whole year to 30p. The IFRS profit after tax, up 2% to £1,687m, was better than expected, with a significant release of longevity provisions (£728m). The new management will continue to focus on debt reduction (£1.5bn) thanks mainly t
Aviva posted a declining H1 18 IFRS profit of £376m, lower than expected. Compared to our estimates, the difference came from General insurance & Health which recorded a 28% drop in operating profits to £302m, with an increasing combined operating ratio by 290bp to 97.4%. The Solvency II capital surplus reduced to £11bn and the coverage ratio stood at 187% after debt repurchases. The interim dividend is 9.28p, up 10% yoy. We keep our positive opinion on the insurer.
Aviva posted a good and improved IFRS profit of £1,646m, better than expected. Compared to our estimates, the difference came from General insurance & Health which recorded a 16% drop in operating profits to £700m, with a combined operating ratio that increased by 2.4% to 96.6%. The Solvency II capital surplus is £12.2bn and the coverage ratio stood at 198%. The total 2017 dividend is 27.4p. We keep our positive opinion on the insurer.
The insurer has announced a higher than expected payout ratio for 2017-20, thanks to its comfortable cash position. It has revised up the remitted cash from subsidiaries from £7bn to £8bn over the 2016-18 period. We have revisited our model by increasing the dividend for 2017-19. According to our updated calculation, the total shareholders’ remuneration for this period would reach £2.7bn. Our opinion remains positive with a Buy recommendation.
H1 16 operating EPS increased by 1.3% to 22.4p and IFRS operating profit improved to £1,325m (up 13.2% yoy). Life insurance has posted improvements in profits to £1,021m (+20% yoy) but the General insurance & Health showed a downturn trend to £334m (-20.8% yoy). The combined operating ratio increased by 3.1% to 96.2%. Fund Management’s earnings increased by 48% to £49m. IFRS profit after tax stood at £201m (-63.1% yoy). VNB increased 9% (7% at constant FX) to £583m. Progress was recorded in the
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What’s new: Updates in April and early May reveal:
Group consolidated Funds Under Management “FuM” of US$11.3bn at the end of April 2021 is up 4.0% year to date (Dec20: US$10.9bn).
Strong investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies, was offset by clients rebalancing, resulting in 3Q net outflow of US$278m.
CLIG continues to maintain an active pipeline across all its major products.
Income net of third-party commissions currently accrues at circa 74 bps (i.e. c. 73 bps
Companies: City of London Investment Group PLC
Forecast beating Final Results
Companies: Palace Capital plc
As midsummer’s day looms (where has this year gone?), there is greater optimism, in general, than may have been anticipated a few months ago. A post-pandemic, ‘vaccine-driven’ recovery demonstrated by increased consumer spending as lockdown measures are lifted has been one of the catalysts. The FTSE 100 has been range-bound in the last month 6,900-7,100. We have seen a combination of broadly positive company results across a range of sectors, further examples of M&A activity and a sequence of ne
Companies: AMYT ARBB ARW BAG BEG BONH BWNG CWK DNK EML EPWN FBD FA/ GPH GSF GNC HUW IGC INSE KAPE KP2 MMAG NRR NESF OTMP ROL RUA SEN SUR TON TOU TXP TGL VLS WINK
Avation is a lessor of 45 aircraft to a diversified airline client base of 19 commercial airlines across 15 countries. This morning, the group has provided a solid trading update to 31 March 2021, which points to a continued focus on managing the collection of customer revenue, with rent collections and overall cashflow having improved since the end of H1 2021. The remarketing of the eight returned ATR aircraft has also continued, while net debt reduced by $51.6m in Q3 FY 2021E to $988.1m, with
Companies: Avation PLC
HgCapital Trust (HGT) posted a strong NAV TR of 8.4% in Q121, driven primarily by double-digit earnings growth across the portfolio (LTM EBITDA for top 20 holdings up 30% y-o-y). After record-high transaction volumes in FY20 (investments at £403m and realisations at £364m), HGT has maintained a high transaction activity to date in 2021 (£147m and £112m, respectively). Its coverage ratio was a healthy 69% at 12 May 2021, supported by tap equity issues, which totalled c £50m to 8 June 2021 (versus
Companies: Hgcapital Trust
Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG LN) has today released a trading update and published an unaudited NAV of $1.6829 (122.5p) as at 31 March 2021 vs $1.5114 (116.7p) as at 31 March 2020. This is an increase of 11.3% (in US$ terms – to which the company changed its reporting currency back in October 2020), and a TR of 15.7%, giving a TR of 40.7% since inception in July 2018. The growth in the “Operative NAV” is 9.4% on like-for-like uplift in fair value catalogues which has been driven various factors: t
Companies: Hipgnosis Songs Fund Limited Shs GBP
Liontrust has delivered exceptional growth and there is much to be optimistic about, yet it continues to trade on an unexceptional 14x Mar-22e PER. We are expecting no surprises at Finals later this month after a post-period update in late May and supportive markets since. There is opportunity across the fund range (including the established Sustainable strategy) with continuing growth from flows and performance, and potential in recent acquisitions; set against compelling market dynamics. Liont
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management PLC
Today's news & views, plus announcements from SSPG, PNL, SHED, TUNG, ANX, BLTG, AVAP
Trident reports that Moxico Resources Plc has recently completed a US$73m equity financing. The proceeds will be used to fast-track development of the Mimbula copper mine in Zambia over which Trident holds a royalty. Mimbula is already producing copper and is in the ramp up stage, but the cash injection will allow Moxico to produce cathode copper onsite via the construction of a new SX-EW plant and Moxico anticipates a significant increase in copper production. As a royalty holder, Trident will
Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
OCI hosted its annual Capital Markets (CM) day on 18 May 2021.With presentations from Oakley Capital and investee companies, as well as Q&A, including the OCI board, it gave a clear view of the prospects of the organisation. We have argued in previous notes that OCI’s outperformance (five-year CAGR NAV total return 16%) is driven by i) high-growth companies and sector champions enjoying structural tailwinds and often digital disruption benefits (2020 average 20% EBITDA growth), ii) repeatable an
Companies: Oakley Capital Investments
AVO’s goal is to deliver an affordable and novel PT system, called LIGHT, based on state-of-the-art technology developed originally at the world-renowned CERN. Over the past two years, important technical milestones have significantly derisked the project. Now, AVO is working on the verification and validation phase, prior to LIGHT being used on the first patients to support CE marking. In its recent technical update, the company highlighted progress made over the past three months towards a ful
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN RECI STX SPO SCE TRX VTA
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) is managed by Nick Train, one of the founding partners of boutique investment firm Lindsell Train. He is optimistic on the current outlook for UK equities, all the more so given several years of relative underperformance; in particular, the manager believes that global investors are underestimating the level of technological innovation within the UK corporate sector. While FGT’s relative performance has lagged that of its peers and the UK market in recent mon
Companies: Finsbury Growth & Income Trust PLC
Urban Logistics REIT (“ULR”) has delivered a watershed year: doubling the portfolio with a disciplined approach focusing on value-add opportunity through reversion and regear. Finals show rental income doubling from acquired assets, with recurring EPS in line with our forecast. EPRA NAV was 6% ahead of N+1Se, as valuation yields tightened. The manager has secured a further c.£150m pipeline of similarly attractive assets. We make a modest upgrade to EPRA NAV on better valuation. We see sustained
Companies: Urban Logistics REIT plc
Trident Royalties Plc (AIM: TRR) has, this morning, noted progress at the Mimbula Copper Project, over which Trident holds a gross revenue royalty (GRR). Mimbula's owner and operator, Moxico Resources Plc, recently completed a US$73million equity financing which will be used to develop and build a standalone SX-EW plant. We have also updated our production assumptions for the Thacker Pass Lithium Royalty based on comments by Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE/TSX:LAC) in their Q1 2021 results last mon
Belvoir has exchanged contracts to acquire The Nottingham Building Society’s mortgage services business for £0.6m in cash. In isolation this adds c.1% to our EPS forecasts in a full year but we believe it could pave the way for Belvoir to significantly increase its Financial Services sales as it provides direct access to a substantial source of clients with savings and a high likelihood of needing a mortgage for the first time (50,000 18-39 year old Lifetime ISA savers). We will look to reflect
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC