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15 May 2025
1Q25: After the call

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1Q25: After the call
Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 619 57 1.5% | Mkt Cap: 16,587m
- Published:
15 May 2025 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
THE CONF CALL FOCUSED ON GENERAL INSURANCE, as one might expect given this is now a larger part of the business, and the segment with the most moving parts right now. Underwriting progress in Canada appears strong, notwithstanding weather. In the UK, the message was a bit less clear, with positive tone on both the level and direction of profitability, but a recognition that the price/claims dynamic has come off from very strong levels in both personal and commercial.
BNPP Exane View:
Key points from the conference call:
. GI MARGINS: Canada seeing improvement from price, frequency and exits. In the UK, management said that ''written combined ratios support underlying positive development'', although it''s not clear to us what this implies for FY25+ margins, given that the 1Q25 undiscounted COR is c.2ppts higher than the FY24 attritional. They are still aiming for the 94% undiscounted COR, but it doesn''t sound like they will reach it imminently.
. UK PERSONAL GI: Claims inflation is mid-single digit across motor and home. Motor pricing down 4% on new business, down 1% on renewal, but there is continued benefit from frequency (we think benign weather may be playing a part here) and mix shift from intermediated to retail over the course of 2024, which continues to earn through. Aviva are pricing home flat, while the market is down. Topline growth included the Nationwide travel partnership as well as other intermediated in-force: this is welcome, but we note that intermediated business is generally less profitable than Retail, and this will earn through in 2025+. Nationwide home partnership is not online yet. In Retail (i.e. direct), volume partially offset price reductions.
. UK COMMERCIAL GI: As with retail, this market is coming out of a hard market, and large account pricing in particular is softer, but rate is still adequate. Motor and liability are seeing positive price, but financial lines are worse. GCS growth is mainly in...