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15 May 2025
1Q25 trading update: good topline and positive tone on underwriting

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1Q25 trading update: good topline and positive tone on underwriting
Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 610 2.4 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 16,333m
- Published:
15 May 2025 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Aviva''s 1Q25 trading update includes strong topline and a helpful message on the underwriting outlook. We expect the shares to outperform a bit today.
BNPP Exane View:
. GI TOPLINE: GWP +9%(CFX), or +6% excl. Probitas, c.3% ahead of our expectations. UK +5% ex Probitas, which we see as a positive surprise in the context of weaker motor market and commercial pricing; this benefited from intermediated business. Canada commercial shrank slightly, offset by 10% personal lines growth, driven by pricing.
. GI UNDERWRITING: COR is half a ppt worse than we expected, but this seems to reflect heavy cat, especially in Ireland. Expecting a continued improvement in the COR in 2025 (subject to normal weather). UK COR said to benefit from earn-through of pricing actions and growth of retail business in 2024. Canada underlying underwriting improved (unquantified) due to pricing and lower frequency. Overall discounting of 3.7ppts is slightly better than the 3.5ppt guidance for FY25.
. IWR (LIFE): Wealth flows down 15%, reflecting a large scheme loss in workplace, offset by +52% growth in platform. Flows at the 4m stage are ahead of last year, reflecting the win of a large scheme. Retirement sales +4%, within which Individual annuities +32%. BPA margins improved due to shift to smaller schemes. Expect BPA volumes in-line with the last three years, but less than in 2024.
. BALANCE SHEET: S2 ratio at 201% is a few points higher than we expected (small positive from debt restructuring; we had expected a small negative). Leverage ratio of 30.1% pro forma (vs. target of 30%) may be seen as a bit of a negative ahead of DLG integration which will raise leverage further. Centre liquidity of GBP1.8bn, excl. funds held for DLG acquisition.
. GUIDANCE: reiterated stand-alone guidance for FY26, and confirm they will re-frame targets once DLG is closed.
. OTHER: no new news on DLG.