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09 Apr 2021
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Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 606 -2.4 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 16,228m
- Published:
09 Apr 2021 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
13 -
Aviva has agreed the sale of 8 businesses in 8 months for nearly GBP8bn. Once these disposals close, Aviva''s pivot towards the core businesses of the UK, Ireland and Canada will be largely complete.
Rapid delivery against the portfolio plan
Aviva has been gradually shrinking its global footprint over many years. But CEO Amanda Blanc''s announcement in August that the group would focus on the Core markets of UK, Ireland and Canada was a particularly drastic step towards simplifying the business. Aviva has agreed eight disposals since that announcement, for a total of GBP7.7bn - and also completed the disposal of Friends Provident International, first announced in 2017. We had been somewhat concerned about execution risk for this ambitious plan - but while not all the disposals have closed, that execution risk is significantly diminished.
Implications for capital returns: GBP5bn for shareholders and GBP2.9bn debt reduction
We have updated our estimates of the capital returns available to shareholders (see our previous estimates for different scenarios in The G word and The Div-il is in the Detail). The sale of Poland attracted a better price than we anticipated, and so we revise up our expected shareholder returns to GBP5bn, with GBP2.9bn of debt deleveraging. The capital returns could start this year (and the debt deleveraging has already begun).
Updating our estimates and valuation
We have updated our forecasts for the disposals, with earnings declining by c.30% in 2022+. We recognise the shareholder returns as a separate addition to valuation, rather than through explicit buy-backs, because the size of the returns relative to traded volumes may make a buy-back for the full GBP5bn difficult to execute. We reduce our beta slightly in recognition of the reduction in leverage, leading to a 5% increase in our Target Price. After adjusting for special returns, the 2022 ordinary dividend yield reaches 8.4%.