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14 Nov 2024
Aviva 9M24 TRADING: DECENT

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Aviva 9M24 TRADING: DECENT
Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 610 2.4 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 16,333m
- Published:
14 Nov 2024 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
8 -
AVIVA 9M24 TRADING: DECENT
AVIVA
-, TP GBP4.65
DECENT TRADING STATEMENT, with good IWR(Life) volumes, and GI combined ratio a touch better than we expected (albeit the lack of info on the drivers, especially in a quarter with heavy cat, means it''s difficult to read this). GI topline growth is strong, albeit expected. Solvency is fine; outlook reiterated. We''d expect the shares to outperform c.1% this morning.
. GENERAL INSURANCE TOPLINE: 3Q24 GWP of GBP3,110m, 12% growth, was a touch less than we were expecting, but we think this is due to phasing of Probitas. UK motor policies grew 13% in 9M24.
. GENERAL INSURANCE UNDERWRITING: all-in undiscounted combined ratio of 99.5% was c.1ppt better than we had expected, with Ireland better than we assumed. No specific detail on the cat loss in Canada, nor on the rest of the combined ratio drivers, so difficult to quite know what to make of this.
. IWR (LIFE): 3Q24 PVNBP of GBP12.4bn grew 57%, well ahead of our expectations, driven by annuities volumes (BPA of GBP7.8bn YTD - ahead of previous guidance, and they don''t expect a material increase over the remainder of the year). Protection ex. acquisition of AIG shrank 5%; health new business shrank 15%, as expected given strong volumes last year. Wealth flows of GBP2.7bn in 3Q24 a bit ahead of our expectations, driven by platform.
. AVIVA INVESTORS: flows roughly flat.
. CAPITAL/CASH: 195% is a touch shy of our expectations, but likely reflects the greater BPA volumes in the quarter. GBP1.7bn of central liquidity.
. OUTLOOK: targets reiterated; still expecting underlying combined ratio to improve.
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