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27 Feb 2025
Aviva FY24: a decent beat

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Aviva FY24: a decent beat
Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 564 18 0.6% | Mkt Cap: 15,104m
- Published:
27 Feb 2025 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
12 -
What happened?
AVIVA beat op profit expectations by 6%, driven by strong general insurance (both attritional and investment income), partially offset by IWR (Life). Cap Gen metrics are also decent. We expect the stock to outperform a few ppts today.
BNPP Exane View:
. GENERAL INSURANCE: 10% beat vs. BBG op profit consensus. GWP in-line. COR 60bps better than our expectations, or 50bps excl. PYD/weather. Double-digit beat on net investment income as well.
. IWR (LIFE): 7% miss on BBG op profit consensus. On our numbers, the miss is driven by protection/health (assumption change) and ''other'' (hedge costs), partially offset by heritage. IRRs on BPA ''above'' low-teens.
. OTHER: Aviva Investors a small beat, International investments a miss, although in-line on our numbers. Central items much better than BBG consensus (a small beat on our expectations).
. CAP GEN: OFG is a 5% beat to company consensus, although in-line with our own expectations. OCG a touch ahead of our forecast. Perhaps most importantly, it looks like the future surplus emergence has grown, which is helpful.
. BALANCE SHEET: S2 ratio of 203% in-line. 28.9% leverage ratio (target is 30%).
. CAPITAL RETURNS: DPS in-line. Reminder that buyback was paused.
. OUTLOOK: no change to guidance.
PRESS RELEASE AND SLIDES here
WEBCAST at 9.00am UK here
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Source: Company disclosures, BBG, BNPPE estimates.