The market loves a restructuring story. We also like what Aviva has been doing. But we think the market has got ahead of itself. Firstly - credit where credit''s due: fantastic execution Aviva''s management team has delivered its disposal programme at pace. It has already used part of the proceeds to de-lever to a point where we think one of the market''s major concerns has been taken off the table. And progress against stretching cost savings targets has been impressive. But while the market loves a restructuring story, relative performance has got ahead of itself We have no quarrel with the decision to sell the non-core businesses, nor with the use of proceeds (we est. GBP5bn for shareholders). But we don''t believe this has crystallised a material discount to the SOTP. The market seems to think that the ''Core'' Aviva businesses deserve a higher multiple than ''old'' Aviva: we challenge that view - because of both the growth potential and business mix. Consensus appears to ignore historic and current trends Turning away from the restructuring, we are concerned by consensus. The UKandI life business has seen unit linked margins decline by ~4bps per year for a decade, reflecting the run-off of heritage business and replacement with lower margin new business - but consensus forecasts these to be flat. New business margins have also declined, reflecting the mix shift towards unit linked savings; again, consensus expects these to be flat. And in non-life, we don''t think consensus fully reflects headwinds to top-line and underwriting margins from pricing and regulation. Cash remittance guidance is highly promising: but given the pressures we highlight above, we have questions about the extent to which this is driven by underlying earnings vs. management actions and the like. Downgrading Aviva to (-); we prefer LandG (+) in UK life and AXA (+) amongst multilines We are 9% below consensus op profit in ''22, and downgrade to U/P: amongst UK life insurers,...