IFRS 17/9 guidance suggests net profit of GBP1.0-1.1bn in FY23, implying a 110% payout Aviva''s IFRS 17/9 disclosures included guidance of just over EUR1.4bn op profit for FY23. We derive an implied operating earnings attributable to shareholders of just over GBP1bn. Aviva have already guided to a dividend cost of c.GBP915m. Assuming GBP300m of buyback (as per FY23 VA consensus and FY22 declared), the total shareholder cash distribution for FY23 comes to GBP1.2bn - representing a 110% pay-out ratio. This contrasts with, for instance, LandG, which had a c.80% IFRS 17/9 operating payout ratio in FY22. To be clear, cash and capital pay for distributions, not IFRS. But can the gap be explained? Optically, this looks like an unsustainable pay-out ratio. But as we have explained in detail elsewhere (Cash Nexus), IFRS has little-to-no bearing on cash distribution capacity. Nonetheless, the question remains whether Aviva can explain this gap between IFRS earnings and distribution capacity, or whether there are questions about the sustainability of the buyback. We explore some of the possibilities in this note. We reiterate our view that the SBB is dependent on management actions, and so in principle is not fully sustainable forever Our analysis elsewhere explains why we think the underlying level of remittance capacity is insufficient to fund a recurring GBP300m buyback, and thus these buybacks depend on management actions (see What did we learn about cash at Aviva?, Cash Nexus, Where next? The pushbacks, and Hold your horses). The IFRS 17/9 disclosures do not change our views on distribution capacity or valuation - but they make the payout sustainability topic more visible. Despite the recent share price weakness, we continue to see better value elsewhere, preferring LandG within the UK Life segment and AXA among the multline insurers.