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  • 03 Feb 2025

Updating valuation and estimates ahead of FY24 results


Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 610 2.4 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 16,333m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • O''Mahony Dominic DO

    • 10 pages


 

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Updating valuation and estimates ahead of FY24 results


Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 610 2.4 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 16,333m


  • Published: 03 Feb 2025
  • Author: O''Mahony Dominic DO
  • Pages: 10
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Updating estimates ahead of FY24 reporting We have updated our estimates ahead of FY24 results. Our operating profit (management basis) reduces c.2%, but there is a larger net income impact in FY24 due to an assumed negative mark-to-market effect. In 2025+, our op profit estimates decline by a similar amount, driven by expected headwinds to UK PandC profitability, partially offset by better expectations for Canada. We also remove the buyback previously expected to be declared at FY24 results, since management have communicated that this would be suspended in light of the Group''s offer for DLG. New target price reflects excess capital revealed by offer for DLG We recognise the value of the suspended GBP300m buyback in surplus capital, so while the buyback suspension impacts EPS by c.(2)% in 2025+, there is negligible impact on valuation. At this stage we do not model the integration of DLG, nor the change in DPS, since the acquisition has yet to be approved by either DLG shareholders or regulators. However, we believe that the offer structure reveals Aviva''s ability to extract excess capital from within the operating entities: we recognise this through a one-off remittance of GBP800m, which adds c.6% to our target price. We also make some other minor changes to estimates which drive the remaining TP increase. Reminder of the timeline Aviva has indicated that a scheme document will be published shortly (''beginning-mid Feb''), and that this will be followed by Aviva''s FY24 results on 27th Feb, then by DLG''s FY24 results in March (date to be confirmed). DLG shareholders will vote on the deal in March, and (if approved) the deal is expected to close in Mid-2025.

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