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13 Mar 2023
What did we learn about cash at Aviva?

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What did we learn about cash at Aviva?
Aviva plc (AV:LON) | 605 -8.5 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 16,215m
- Published:
13 Mar 2023 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
15 -
In January, we relaunched our approach to the insurance sector with a focus on cash distribution capacity (Cash Nexus). This note reviews what we learned on cash generation from Aviva''s FY22 results.
Strong remittances ahead of expectations (and targets) in FY22
Aviva delivered GBP1.8bn of remittances in FY22, ahead of both expectations and targets. Management also expressed their confidence in delivering above the GBP5.4bn targeted for 2022-24. Remittances as a % of OCG in the OpCos has now reached c.100%.
Underlying OCG in the OpCos was stable - long-term outlook better, short-term a tad softer
Stripping out both management actions and some one-off headwinds (re-risking in GI, higher reinsurance retentions), we think OCG in the Operating Companies (the underlying driver of remittances) was c.GBP1.4bn, in-line with recent years. Looking at the projected run-off of the life book, the 20 year surplus emergence actually improved 7%, but the short-term emergence of surplus is a touch softer, since the SCR run-off will be lower.
Is OFG or OCG more important?
Aviva is targeting GBP1.5bn of total Own Funds Generation in 2024, and management also indicated they think they can reach that with a normal level of management actions (GBP0.2bn). This implies a 13% CAGR vs. 2022 - and the company already grew the underlying OFG 15% in FY22 vs. FY21. This is clearly a significant growth ambition. But we think it is more important to focus on OCG, a measure of surplus capital generation, because dividends are paid out of surplus capital - and this does not have the same tailwind from rates as OFG. Although OFG will be important for managing the leverage ratio down.
We still see more value elsewhere
We continue to think Aviva is doing all the right things - but the dependence on management actions to fund remittances means we continue to question long-term buyback expectations. We remain Underperform, with a preference for LandG and NN in the Life sub-sector.