Mid-single digit margins and growth expected in Health & Protection Health & Protection contributed 10% of UK&I Life operating profits in 2020, with UK&I Life c.70% of ongoing profit. Aviva is No.2 in both Individual and Group Protection markets, and No.3 in Health (albeit some way behind Bupa and AXA). Management targets a 6% 5-year sales CAGR and a 7% 5-year Value of New Business CAGR. In 2020, record Group Protection sales offset steep decline in Individual sales due to reduced face-to-face mortgage sales. Conservative view of Health growth? Management expectations for 3% CAGR growth in the private Health market seem conservative, given medical claims inflation. Perhaps this reflects that while underlying demand may be strong, the product is becoming less affordable for many? Focus for growth in Group is Small and Mid-Market, where Aviva’s share is lower than Large corporate, and in Individual, growth channels are direct, telephony and comparison sites. The goal is to get Health VNB margins up from 7% to 10%, with Protection margins expected to stay flat, in part due to lower margins in the nascent but growing direct markets, highlighted above. We understand payback and cash generation to be quicker in these markets than the average for UK&I Life, with heavy use of reinsurance pulling forward returns in Individual, and Group less reinsured and more sensitive to Mortality experience. Material capital return ongoing, growth in cash key The company has committed to at least £4bn capital return to shareholders and £1bn debt reduction, with the disposal programme done and £750m buyback ongoing, which we expect to be completed through share consolidation and step up in the annual dividend. The most recent SII ratio disclosure of 197% pro forma underpins this programme. The key to a sustained re-rating will be to demonstrate long-term cash generation growth, in our view. We expect updates on both with Full Year results on March 2nd, but see limited catalysts before then.