In the week to 1 May the FTSE All Share rose 1.2% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.5% and 0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+2.5%); Beazley (-0.2%) was the worst performer. The Q1 reporting season has begun: newsflow has been mixed with a number of US insurers reporting improved PBT/rates, but also loss creep, higher Q1 losses and warnings from brokers about stalling rate rises ahead of the key Jun/Jul US renewals. The 2018 hurricane season starts 1 June with consensus for sli
Companies: BEZ HUW HSX JLT LRE
In the week to 24 April the FTSE All Share rose 2.6% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.8% and 0.0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performers were Helios* (+7.0%) and Beazley (+1.5%); Hiscox (-1.1%) was the worst performer. Following last week’s analysis of the issue of underinsurance with the 2017 cat losses, we look at the growing risk of a Californian earthquake – not necessarily in San Francisco but along the Hayward Fault. Latest analysis suggests an insured loss of cUS$30bn but an economic los
In the week to 17 April the FTSE All Share fell -0.3% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.5% and +0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+4.0%); Helios* (-2.3%) and JLT (-0.8%) were the worst performers. Swiss Re’s sigma analysis of the 2017 insured losses highlights the material protection gap. It estimates the total insured losses from the 2017 catastrophes at US$144bn vs. total economic losses of US$337bn, giving a cat risk protection gap of US$193bn (57%). Herein lies a pot
In the week to 10 April the FTSE All Share rose 3.0% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.5% and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+3.0%); Lancashire (-2.2%) was the worst performer. We look at the first forecasts for the 2018 hurricane season. These early estimates suggest a slightly elevated level of windstorm activity – and an increase in US landfall probability. Of course, it is the if/where of the latter that holds the greatest risk of insured loss and, in 2018, will be a
In the week to 3 April the FTSE All Share rose 0.4% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.8% and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+2.8%); JLT (-1.9%) was the worst performer. This week we review the 1 April renewals, where prices were as muted as we expected. Ongoing competition dampened rate movements where accounts were loss free. It was always going to be a big ask to get those not affected by the 2017 cats to pay up – and they didn’t. Interestingly, M&A is picking up,
In the week to 27 March the FTSE All Share fell -1.0% vs. the Insurance Index at -1.8% and 0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Beazley (+4.3%); Helios* (-3.1%) and Hiscox (-1.6%) were the worst performers. We remind investors of the growing cyber hacking threat to energy providers, especially in the US. Several speciality insurers are already teaming up with energy experts, eg Beazley and Energy Insurance Mutual, to look to provide customised cover for this risk but the insured ex
In the week to 13 March the FTSE All Share rose 0.1% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.7% and +3.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. As M&A speculation rose among the Bermudian underwriters, the best performer was Hiscox (+6.4%); Lancashire (-1.3%) wasthe worst performer. We often talk of the band of global specialist (re)insurers that Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire belong to. In the table below, we rank the key players by market cap (in USD), splitting out the major European players. What stands out is the P
In the week to 6 March the FTSE All Share fell -1.6% vs. the Insurance Index at -2.7% and -0.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+3.3%); JLT (-6.4%) post its FY17 results, was the worst performer. This week we look at the data on actual US property/casualty rate changes in Q4 2017 and Jan 2018. This has a bearing on the outlook for (re)insurers and the drivers behind the latest M&A moves ie the AXA bid for XL Catlin at 1.5x NAV/2.0x TNAV and AIG’s acquisition of Validus
2017 tested the global re/insurance market but we believe the quoted Lloyd’s insurers responded well. The results also highlighted the very different underwriting strategies, especially between Lancashire and Beazley/Hiscox. Lancashire’s underwriting loss, given the 2017 catastrophes, should not have surprised shareholders, nor the fact that Hiscox had an FX exposure. In this report we review the FY results in more detail.
Companies: BEZ HSX LRE
In the week to 27 February the FTSE All Share rose 0.5% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.9% and +1.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+5.6%); Helios* (-3.7%) and Beazley (-1.6%) were the worst performers. This week we review the FY2017 results from Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire. Beazley reported the highest PBT and ROE (8.7%), helped by a strong investment yield. Lancashire’s loss was expected given its higher cat/reinsurance exposure and the 2017 losses. Hiscox was hit by FX lo
In the week to 20 February the FTSE All Share rose 1.3% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.2% and -1.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+0.2%); Lancashire (-14.6%) was the worst performer, reflecting the (overdone in our view) share price fall post its FY17 results. This week we look at the wide range of combined ratios being reported for 2017. The variation reflects the portfolio split, (short/long/cat etc), as well as the quality of underwriting (cf Aspen closing its unit). NB a
FY17 was expected to be negative given its US cat-focus, but the -US$72.9m disappointed vs. consensus. Nevertheless, the share price reaction is overdone, in our view and hence we move to Buy from Add. Lancashire is not facing a serious impairment issue and its short tail and direct focus leave it well positioned for this slow market turn with c75% of the book already seeing price rises. Rates in its core classes have already improved YoY (+5% on average). We reiterate ourslow burn view, seeing
Companies: Lancashire Holdings Limited
In the week to 13 February the FTSE All Share rose 0.4% vs. the Insurance Index at +3.6% and +2.7% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Beazley post its FY17 results (+4.8%); JLT (-0.6%) was the worst performer. We review the recent Alpha (Lloyd’s) Market Analysis. It reports a wide range of rate rises for most short tail lines at January 2018 and suggests there is potentially more to (gradually) come despite a ‘disappointing’ reinsurance renewal. This supports our view of rates: we con
In the week to 6 February the FTSE All Share fell -5.8% vs. the Insurance Index at -3.4% and -5.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The sector was inevitably caught up in the recent market correction, but valuations remain pretty robust. The best performer was Beazley (-3.6%); Hiscox (-7.0%) was the worst performer. The FY17 results season has kicked off: Beazley reports today, then Lancashire and Hiscox. We provide a broad comparison of the three insurers to highlight their differences – and a guide as t
In the week to 30 January the FTSE All Share fell -1.8% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.7% and -0.1% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+1.8%); JLT (-3.4%) was the worst performer. Allianz’s 2018 Risk Barometer reviews perils from more of an insurer viewpoint than the WEF survey. For the first time, BI and Cyber risk exposure are seen virtually on a par. Following the 2017 losses, natural catastrophe risks are back in the top three. Fear drives demand: encouragingly these are ma
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Revolution Beauty is a multi-brand, multi-category, multi-channel, mass beauty innovator with proven global scale. Since launch in 2014, the Group has grown rapidly (FY14 – FY19 CAGR of 99%) generating revenue of £137.5m in the 12m to 31 December 2020. Revolution has an established retail footprint of c.11,000 doors across leading retail chains in the UK, USA and internationally, driving global brand recognition. This is complemented by a fast-growing digital business (+81% in 2020) including it
Companies: Revolution Beauty Group plc
Companies: Aquis Exchange Plc
Litigation Capital Management has released its results for FY21, reflecting on a positive year for the group in very challenging market conditions. Although well flagged, these set of results highlight the strength of LCM's investment process as it's maturing balance sheet continues to deliver strong returns on capital as key cases settle.
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
Oversubscription of Gore Street’s PrimaryBid offer is helpful although given the attractions of the energy storage market perhaps not surprising. The larger placing remains open with results announced at the end of the month. Together the c.£70m raise will provide the fund with ammunition to pursue its strong pipeline of storage opportunities.
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
Companies: Real Estate Investors plc
Following the successful completion of the Hawthorn disposal, towards the top-end of our £180-230m range, and the transformation to a pure retail property group we update forecasts and briefly set out our investment thesis ahead of the Group’s CMD. We estimate FFO for FY22F, FY23F and FY24F of 7.2p, 8.3p and 9.4p per share respectively; a 3-year CAGR of c35% over the 3.8p generated in FY21A. Post-Hawthorn, balance sheet metrics have markedly improved, flexibility enhanced, and refinancing risk r
Companies: NewRiver REIT plc
Gore Street continues to find good projects in the GB market and has today announced a 57MW project in Leicester. It is now more active in seeking projects beyond the UK and RoI in North America and Western Europe and we think there are significant opportunities in these geographies. The company now has a pipeline of 2.5GWh with 2GWh of that in new geographies and 160MWh of that under exclusivity. With these opportunities in mind the company has announced a placing at 107p.
Today's in-line results illustrate the financial impact from restrictions upon face-to-face Insurance sales over the past 15 months. However, they heavily mask the strategic momentum underway across the Group. Since the lifting of restrictions from June, Insurance is exhibiting a strong and accelerating rebound in demand, which should mark an inflection point for policyholder numbers and restore premium income to pre-pandemic levels over the medium-term. We expect the Group's other product lines
Companies: Personal Group Holdings Plc
Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
Companies: AMYT BAG BVC BRSD CLG CML FBD GDWN INV MACF MNZS MIO NRR NSF NBI MATD PREM QFI RUA SCS STVG SUR SNX UPGS VAST VLS
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Eurowag confirms its intention to undertake an initial public offering on the Main Market (Premium). The Offer would be expected to comprise both (i) new Ordinary Shares to be issued by the Company, raising gross proceeds of approximately EUR200m to support Eurowag's growth strategy and (ii) existing Ordinary Shares to be sold by existing Eurowag shareholders. Eurowag is a leading pan-European
Companies: ALS APP BOD DXRX EDR EOG KOO RBBS TRP UOG
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Poolbeg, Proposed AIM listing and demerger from Open Orphan (ORPH.L). Funds raised as part of Admission will be used primarily to fund the clinical trial costs associated with the development of the Company’s POLB 001 asset as a treatment for severe influenza and to acquire and develop new portfolio assets. Offer details and timing TBA
Wise, the Fintech and payments start-up is planning to pull the trigger on a direct listing on the London Stock Exchange as s
Companies: ANP DMTR FCRM HUR I3E IGE KWG MTR MEAL POW
Belvoir’s H1 2021 results are exceptionally strong, with adj. EPS up +50%. They were, of course, aided by a very buoyant housing market, but this does not detract from the strategic progress the group continues to make. The group’s growth strategy has supported 24 years of unbroken profit growth and, while 2022 will likely see cooler market conditions, there are increasing signs it will be a gradual return to more normal conditions. The acquisition of Nicholas Humphreys in H1 and The Nottingham
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC
In-line interim results to 30 June 2021 show revenues up 93% to £8.5m, EBITDA up 118% to £2.4m and AUM up 15% to £1.1bn compared with the FTSE All Share, which grew 11.1%. DFM assets outperformed the All Share by almost 4x, increasing 40% to £606m. Recent acquisitions are all performing as initially expected, with the full opportunities that can be realised as a result of the network effects and joined up approach, likely yet to come. While EBITDA is performing very well, reaching 54% of our 202
Companies: Frenkel Topping Group plc
AfriTin* (ATM LN) – Conditional credit approval for Uis mine expansion
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) - BUY – 125p – Numerous artisanal gold workings discovered on new licenses in Egypt
Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – Drilling results link two kimberlite ‘blows' at Thorny River
Caerus Mineral Resources (CMRS LN) – Raising £1.5m in placing and subscription
GoldStone Resources* (GRL LN) – Extension of Gold Loan
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Battery storage facility to be installed at Queensland mine
Companies: ATM ALS BOD CMRS GRL RIO
Big Technologies (BIG) provides market leading electronic monitoring (EM) systems on a SaaS (Software as a Service) basis primarily to criminal justice systems around the world. EM involves utilising location technologies to remotely monitor and manage people within correctional systems.
Companies: Big Technologies PLC