Insurance weekly

In the week to 28 November the FTSE All Share rose 0.6% vs. +0.3% for the Insurance Index and +0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+2.2%); Beazley (-1.7%) was the worst performer. This week we flag how climate change is affecting US weather events – increasing the likelihood of large economic and (re)insured loss events but also creating new demand and opportunities for (re)insurers. Quoting is underway for the 1 Jan renewals: so far it looks like behemoths Swiss Re and Munic

Insurance weekly

In the week to 21 November the FTSE All Share was flat vs. 0.2% for the Insurance Index and -0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+1.5%); Hiscox (-2.8%) was the worst performer. This week we flag various signs that point to a broader market turn. The fact that Swiss Re hopes for “substantial” rate rises is a positive sign it will happen, in our view. ILS prices have already risen – and why wouldn’t they? Hannover Re and MS Amlin comment that it is the wider lack of return that

Insurance weekly

In the week to 14 November the FTSE All Share fell 1.5% vs. -0.9% for the Insurance Index and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+2.5%); JLT (-1.1%) wasthe worst performer. Hampden forecasts rates at Lloyd’s will rise 6.3% across all classes but these will be restricted to loss affected lines (including UK Motor). However, some 70% of Lloyd’s estimated book (by premium) should see higher prices with rate reduction moderating in most other lines. This would be positive fo

Insurance weekly

In the week to 7 November the FTSE All Share rose 0.3% vs. -4.1% for the Insurance Index and -0.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+0.4%); Lancashire (-2.7%) was the worst performer. WTW’s market report predicts rates will rise in 2018 but also notes alternative capital is likely to dampen the upside. Based on its forecasts, key lines written at Lloyd’s will see rate raises in 2018. Lancashire should be an early beneficiary, but it’s also good news for Hiscox and Beazley –

Insurance weekly

In the week to 31 October the FTSE All Share fell 0.2% vs. +0.1% for the Insurance Index and +4.0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+11.2%); Helios* (0%) and JLT (+1.8%) were the worst performers. We have moved to a sector positive stance (cf. report 31 Oct). We flag those syndicates proposing 2018 capacity pre-emptions, including Hiscox (S.33 +39%) and Beazley (S.623/6107 +15%/17%), which we see as a positive signal for rate expectations. Helios benefits with its 2018 c

Insurance weekly

In the week to 24 October the FTSE All Share rose 0.1% vs. +1.0% for the Insurance Index and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+2.0%); Helios (-1.9%) and Beazley (-1.0%) were the worst performers. We flag (again) the growth potential for US flood (re)insurance cover. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have highlighted that the NFIP is not fit for purpose; reforms are necessary and flood needs to be opened to the private market. We note that Hiscox is already positioned to b

The Money Bin

In the week to 17 October the FTSE All Share fell 0.2% vs. +0.2% for the Insurance Index and +0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+1.7%); Lancashire (-0.8%) was the worst performer. This week we look at the ‘slightly’ improving picture in US commercial rates (important for Lloyd’s as a leading E&S insurer). This stabilisation/moderation should accelerate into broader rate rises post Q3 cat losses and the increase in D&O class lawsuits. How far rate rises extend across non-aff

The Money Bin

In the week to 10 October the FTSE All Share rose 0.9% vs. +2.6% for the Insurance Index and +1.6% for the Lloyd’s Index as loss sizes became clearer. The best performer was Hiscox (+2.3%); Helios (0%) and JLT (0.8%) were the worst performers. We look at the latest catastrophe loss estimates for Q3 but note 2017 is not yet done, with Hurricane Nate making landfall last week and ferocious wildfires in California. Increasingly, talk is of rate rises vs. ‘stability’ previously. NB Hiscox’s proposed

The Money Bin

In the week to 3 October the FTSE All Share rose 2.5% vs. -0.9% for the Insurance Index and +5.4% for the Lloyd’s Index as loss sizes became clearer. The best performer was Hiscox (+7.0%); Helios (-5.5%) and Novae (0%) were the worst performers. We review the Lloyd’s H1 2017 results, which fell YoY but reflected low loss activity in H1: H2 has changed this and Lloyd’s will have large cat losses as these are exactly the exposures it (re)insures. Other news: Novae has now delisted and Beazley and

Insurance weekly

In the week to 26 September the FTSE All Share rose 0.1% vs. -1.6% for the Insurance Index and -1.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performers were Nove (+0.4% - the shares delist shortly) and JLT (-0.2%); Helios (-5.2%) and Lancashire (-4.1%) were the worst performers. We again focus on 2017 cat lossesfollowing AIR’s shock estimate for Maria at up to US$85bn, plusthe two Mexican quakes. The upper end of the current range of total insured loss estimates for FY17 (cUS$200bn) would move the dial

Insurance weekly

In the week to 19 September the FTSE All Share fell 1.5% vs. -2.0% for the Insurance Index and -1.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+1.1%); Lancashire (-3.0%) was the worst performer. We take a ‘rough and ready’ view of how Hurricanes Harvey and Irma might impact 2017E PBT. These estimates come with major caveats – the market losses and hence the net losses to each business have yet to be fully calculated/communicated. We therefore urge caution: these figures should merely be

The Money Bin

In the week to 22 August the FTSE All Share was flat vs. -2.7% for the Insurance Index and -0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Helios (+2.5%); Hiscox (-2.6%) wasthe worst performer. We are in the peak period for Atlantic hurricanes with forecasters predicting above average activity. From a pricing viewpoint, we need a major claim. No cat losses mean good H2 17 profits, but also more capital/more rating pressure. 24 August is the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew hitting Florid

The Money Bin

In the week to 15 Augustthe FTSE All Share fell 1.9% vs. -1.3% for the Insurance Index and -1.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Helios (0.0%); Lancashire (-3.4%) was the worst performer. This week we review the Hampden Market Outlook that HUR provides for its Lloyd’s Names clients. It estimates the average rate reduction YTD is -2% on the 2016 average. The pace of reduction is moderating, albeit the trend is still down. Margins are tight in many lines; we believe lower levels of l

H1 2017 results summary

The following tables summarise the H1 2017 results. Our report published 8 August reviewed the composition of the H1 ROE in more detail and today’s Money Bin collates and compares the interim results of all the UK insurers that have reported to date. We consider these results to be good given the more challenging trading backdrop. (Novae’s results reflect the issues it faces and hence our support for the AXIS offer). Underwriting margins are under considerable pressure but claims activity has be

The Money Bin

In the week to 8 August the FTSE All Share rose 1.4% vs. +1.6% for the Insurance Index and +2.0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+4.0%); Helios (-8.7%) and Novae (-0.7%) were the worst performers. This week we summarise the H1 results/ROE reported by the Lloyd’s insurers, RSA and the UK Motor/Home insurers. Overall, these were pretty good results against a mixed trading backdrop – boosted once again by relatively benign claims activity/weather losses and improved YoY invest

Redde

Proposed share-for-share merger with Northgate

Lowland Investment Company - Is the tide turning?

Lowland Investment Company’s (LWI’s) unconstrained, multi-cap investment policy differentiates it from most peers in the AIC UK Equity Income sector. It offers investors broad market exposure, outside of the large, traditional ‘income stocks’ at a 13% discount to NAV. The underperformance of small- and mid-cap companies versus larger peers has slowed and a turnaround would be very positive for LWI. Portfolio returns are already benefiting from acquisition activity, spurred by low valuations, and

Foxtons Group (FOXT LN) - 1Q24 IMS shows real momentum

Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

PCI Pal - +25% FY23 revenue growth, FY24 growth of +28% reiterated

PCI Pal’s FY23 results show revenue growth of +25% to £14.9m, gross profit growth of +31% to £13.1m at a margin of 88%, and an outlook confirming robust momentum in H1 24. The FY23 results are as expected following the August trading update, and FY23 Total Annual Contract Value (TACV) is +23% yoy to £16.4m, with ARR +14% yoy to £12.6m due to £3.1m of contracts in deployment. We expect ARR will increase +35% and +31% to £17.0m and £22.2m in FY24 and FY25, as management lands and expands following

Foresight Solar Fund - Optimising capital allocation

Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL) celebrated its 10-year anniversary of listing on the London Stock Exchange with decade-high cash distributions from assets of £120.4m in its FY23 results (year end 31 December). FY23 also saw FSFL’s divestment programme come to fruition with the sale of a 50% stake in its Spanish Lorca portfolio at a 21% premium to its holding value. The proceeds of this divestment, along with free cash, were used to pay down the fund’s variable rate debt via its revolving credit faci

Tetragon Financial Group - FY23 growth driven by idiosyncratic factors

Tetragon Financial Group (Tetragon) posted a 6.4% net asset value (NAV) per share total return (TR) in US dollar terms in FY23. Tetragon’s returns normally have a low correlation with broader markets, and therefore its FY23 performance was below the 26.3% return of the S&P 500 Index, which rallied on the artificial intelligence (AI) theme. Tetragon’s FY23 return on equity (RoE) of 5.5% was below its target of 10–15% pa. That said, its performance since listing was within the target range at 11.3

Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Vector Capital - Full year results illustrate challenging backdrop; dividend maintained

Vector Capital is an established commercial lending group, focused on secured short-term and bridging loans in the property sector. This morning, the group has reported full year results to 31 December 2023, illustrating the challenging market backdrop. While underlying trading was robust, with good demand being seen for new loans, provisions for bad debts relating to historical loans of £728k in the year led to a decrease in PBT to £2.1m (WHI est. £2.4m, FY22 £2.8m). Looking ahead, although VCA

Strong H1'23 results; forecasts upgraded