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30 Apr 2025
1Q25 trading update: good NBP, but another legal dispute
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1Q25 trading update: good NBP, but another legal dispute
Prudential plc (PRU:LON) | 1,050 42 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 26,847m
- Published:
30 Apr 2025 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Prudential Plc published its 1Q25 trading update overnight UK time, showing 12% New Business Profit growth on 4% volume growth. We had expected +9% NBP, so we see this as a decent result, albeit volumes were below our expectation. Additionally, the company disclosed it is expecting a legal claim from its partner in Malaysia for $813m dividends not received (3% of market cap), plus interest: it will contest this, but we think this will likely weigh on the stock. Prudential Plc shares are roughly flat in HK, but we think the legal judgement will likely weigh on sentiment, and so expect the stock down a small amount today.
BNPP Exane View:
- HIGHLIGHTS: NBP (now on a TEV basis) improved +12% to $608m, on APE growth of 4% to $1,677m (constant FX). The NBP margin improved by 2ppts to 36%. We had expected c.9% NBP growth on c.8% APE growth, so the NBP is better than we thought, APE is worse.
- MARKETS: double-digit NBP growth in HK, Mainland China, Indonesia, Singapore and Growth market/Other (including Taiwan and Philippines). Malaysia saw a decline in NBP, which seems to reflect the impact of health re-pricing. Vietnam also saw a decline, reflecting continued challenges in consumer sentiment (related to competitor sales practices).
- AM: Eastspring AuM roughly flat on FY24.
- LITIGATION: As a reminder, the Malaysian courts decided last year that Pru had not, in fact, bought out its partner in the market in 2008, and so Pru has ceded 49% of the business back to the partner. The newly disclosed dispute related to dividends that would have been paid to the partner in the intervening period worth $813m (3% of market cap). It''s difficult to estimate the interest cost on top of this (set at a rate of 5%), but given the time period, a very rough back-of-the envelope suggests it could be anything from 20-50% extra. The claim is yet to be formally served, and we expect Pru to vigorously contest the claim (presumably on the basis that value was...