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  • 27 Aug 2025

After the call: plans are on track


Prudential plc (PRU:LON) | 1,039 -98.7 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 26,579m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • O''Mahony Dominic DO

    • 9 pages


 

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After the call: plans are on track


Prudential plc (PRU:LON) | 1,039 -98.7 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 26,579m


  • Published: 27 Aug 2025
  • Author: O''Mahony Dominic DO
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? The big picture operational takeaway, we think, from HY25 is that the plans are on track, with proof-points on NBP growth and (most importantly, in our view) capital generation from new business providing reason to be comfortable with the targets. The capital return policy changes are welcome, albeit largely confirming our own view in terms of payout and quantum of cash (albeit with a different mix). It''s somewhat unhelpful to see active agent numbers decline, but this is a game of quality rather than quantity, and management seem to have plans in train to address this. BNPP Exane View: Details from the call: . HK: Management are very happy with the balance of domestic / MCV and bancassurance/agency. no sign of new business being impacted by currency volatility or geopolitics. . CHINA: it sounds like there''s a concerted effort underway to boost the agency channel, with a new onboarding programme, and 45% increase in new recruits. Management don''t seem phased by regulatory changes (phasing of commission payments). . DISTRIBUTION: new Indonesia partnership not yet activated. Management are clear they think agency could be performing better, e.g. in Malaysia and Vietnam, and they are taking action. Monthly active agent numbers declined, but productivity increased. . CAP GEN: the new business is focused on products with accelerated cash emergence, hence the growth in the contribution to cap gen in 2027 (+27%) was well ahead of NBP growth (+12%). Confirmed they expect positive operating variances in 2027; CFO didn''t push back on achieving the $200m level seen in 2020. . INVESTMENT SPEND: of the $1bn investment spend guidance, c.$400m has been spent, and management seemed to indicate there will be another c.$120m in 2H25 and $200-250m in FY26, which implies a gap of $200m. Not clear to us whether this implies continued investment spend into 2027, or underspend. . CAPITAL RETURNS: CFO was clear that they are looking through the...

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