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12 Feb 2025
Considers listing of ICICI Pru AM
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Considers listing of ICICI Pru AM
Prudential plc (PRU:LON) | 1,070 -155.1 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 27,374m
- Published:
12 Feb 2025 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
. LISTING: Prudential has announced that it is evaluating the potential listing of its stake in its Indian AM JV with ICICI. Pru currently owns 50% of the business.
. FINANCIALS: Pru has not given any indication of the expected size of listing, nor of valuation. In the year to March 2024, the PBT for the business was c.$320m, implying PAT attributable to Pru''s 50% stake of c.$120m.
BNPP Exane View:
. VALUATION: Indian AM peers trade at wide range of multiples (and have also derated over the past few weeks). But we would assume a rough peer-multiple of c.24x.
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Source: Bloomberg, Visible Alpha
. HIGH SINGLE DIGIT ACCRETION: Applying this to Pru''s stake, assuming 10% earnings growth Y/Y, implies a valuation of c.$3.2bn, or 13% of the Pru''s Group Enterprise Value. The stake in the business contributes c.5% of Pru''s group net earnings, so a full sell-down and return of capital would be high-single digit accretive.
. CAVEATS: there is a wide range of peer multiples, so assessing valuation is difficult; and there would be transaction costs. And naturally this is an implicitly higher multiple business than the rest of the group: to the extent the market is efficient, the multiple for the rump Pru group would reduce post sell-down. Although we would hypothesize that the ICICI-Pru AM stake is somewhat hidden at present, and the full valuation is likely not be reflected in the Pru''s share price.
. OTHER DISPOSAL OPTIONS: In 2025: look beyond Europe, and beyond insurance, we discussed several other disposal options for Pru. The 22% stake in the Indian Life JV is currently worth $2.1bn (8% of Enterprise Value) and the remainder of Eastspring could be worth in the region of $2bn (8% of Enterprise Value). These two entities contribute c.10% of op profit combined, and so disposal of these could also be accretive, albeit not as accretive as that of the Indian AM JV. If the group is seeking to crystalise a perceived discount to the SOTP, then we...