What happened? We have spoken to Prudential Plc, who are due to report FY24 at 10pm UK on 19th March. We highlight there has been no change to full-year guidance. BNPP Exane View: . VOLUMES: the company highlighted market-wide price changes in Chinese life products at the start of October. They noted that the Chinese market typically accelerates sales ahead of these changes, and this is a corresponding drag in the months thereafter. They noted the strong growth reported in 3Q24 discrete by Chinese Life insurance peers, and the weaker growth in October / November. Management also highlighted the headwind from USD strength, which implies a 1-2% headwind vs. FY23. . NBP MARGINS: the company reminded us that NBP margins have historically been negatively impacted by higher US bond yields, and also by lower Chinese bond yields. They also reminded us that all Embedded Value metrics (incl. NBP margins) are re-stated for the entire year on the basis of the end of the period economics - i.e. the margins for the first 9M will be restated. The 9-13% NBP Y/Y growth guidance for FY24 is an ex. Economics, ex. FX metric. . IFRS CSM: the company flagged the implied headwind to CSM from both bond yields and FX, and the implied tailwind from equity markets. They also reminded us that a portion of the $1bn Investment programme spend runs through the CSM as well. . IFRS EARNINGS: the company noted that the buyback programme mechanically reduces the cash balances, and hence the investment returns at the HoldCo level. . OUR VIEW: Last Friday, we reduced our EEV-basis NBP for FY24+ by 7-9%, reflecting the impact of USD and Chinese bond yields at the end of 2024, placing us 5-7% below VA consensus. We expect consensus EEV-basis NBP will revise downwards, albeit the switch to the TEV basis in 2025 will make the rate sensitivity much less impactful in 2025+. It also looks like VA consensus assumes some positive revisions to CSM in 2H24, when the rate sensitivity implies...