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  • 07 Jul 2025

Feedback from company ahead of HY25 results


Prudential plc (PRU:LON) | 1,070 -155.1 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 27,374m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • O''Mahony Dominic DO

    • 8 pages


 

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Feedback from company ahead of HY25 results


Prudential plc (PRU:LON) | 1,070 -155.1 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 27,374m


  • Published: 07 Jul 2025
  • Author: O''Mahony Dominic DO
  • Pages: 8
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? We have spoken to Prudential ahead of 1H25 results, due to be reported late on 26th August UK time / early 27th HK time. We note there was no change to guidance. BNPP Exane View: . FX: the company reminded us that FX was a 1% headwind in 1Q25 but will be a low-single digit tailwind in 2Q25. Malaysia currency is a high-single-digit tailwind in 1H25 - bear in mind that this increases the NCI component. . NB PROFIT: as a reminder, management are targeting 10% Y/Y growth in New Business Profit for FY25. NBP margins are typically higher in 2H than 1H, reflecting channel and geography mix. The company also reminded us that new pricing kicked-in in 2Q24, so this was a tailwind in 1Q25 which has now fallen away. . HK: volumes were strong across both domestic and MCV in 1Q25. . CHINA: They reminded us that they have guided to 4-5% NBP margin headwinds in China over the course of FY25 as product mix shifts to participating savings. Double digit NBP growth reported for 1Q25; high single digit growth guided for FY25. . SINGAPORE: Note that sales were very strong in 2Q24, so there is a tough comparative period. . INDONESIA: sales momentum improved over the second half of FY24. N.B. the new bancassurance deal was only formalised during 1H25, so we infer it will not contribute meaningfully in the period. . MALAYSIA: reminder that there are industry-wide challenges in the agency channel. This is negative for NBP margins. . GROWTH MARKETS: Thailand APE was +4% in first 5M. India was down 4% in first 5M. Reminder that consumer confidence is very challenged in Vietnam. . IFRS: reminder that the company is targeting double-digit OPAT / share for FY25. CSM sensitivities should be a small tailwind due to bond yield movements and equities. Note that the investment return reduced over FY24 as there was a reduction of surplus funds in the operating entities. . CAPITAL RETURNS: $500m SBB programme remaining after 30/06/25. Share-count at 30/06/25 was...

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