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20 Mar 2025
FY24: AFTER THE CALL
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FY24: AFTER THE CALL
Prudential plc (PRU:LON) | 1,054 147.5 1.4% | Mkt Cap: 26,947m
- Published:
20 Mar 2025 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
Fundamentally, the equity case for Pru is the combination of yield plus growth. The first part has become more important in the past two years, but the growth outlook is still the biggest driver of value. What did we learn on these two factors? On growth, we think the commitment to double-digit growth in new business value over both short and medium term is welcome, even if in-line with sell-side expectations, and it''s reassuring that management do not see various recent regulatory interventions as stymying this. On capital returns, these are driven by the capital generation: it is helpful to have an illustration of how management can hit the $4.4bn OFSG target, but we expect the market will have questions about the quality and sustainability of the positive operating variances that appear to be required for this. It is also helpful for management to show proactivity on a) accelerating the SBB programme, b) opening the door to more capital return in August, c) committing to returning potential AM listing proceeds. The expected inflection in net OFSG also raises a question about whether DPS can step-up materially over the next few years (let''s see). While we don''t think expectations will move dramatically based on today, we think the market will come away a bit more confident in the trajectory. Details from the call:
BNPP Exane View:
. CAP GEN FROM NEW BIZ: the signature of surplus emergence from new business accelerated for a few reasons, including repricing. From here, there are several factors that will also help: further repricing, product and channel mix shift, and country mix shift. The IRR for new business on a 100% free surplus ratio basis was c.40% in FY24; the 25% indication is based on the free surplus ratio policy (175%)
. CAP GEN VARIANCES: lots of focus on the operating variances, which are an important bridging item to the $4.4bn gross OFSG target for 2027. These were negative even ex investment plans in 2024,...