In How much could they distribute?, we asked how much cash return Prudential could afford, both one-off and recurring. On 23rd June we got $2bn of one-off buyback, and a framework for thinking about the recurring capacity. In light of underperformance and this new news, we upgrade to O/P. More jam today, and more jam tomorrow Prudential''s capital management update on 23rd June includes a $2bn buyback programme, equivalent to 8% of the market cap, over the next two years. Based on our modelling of the new free surplus ratio metric, we think the group could also deliver $750m of buyback / year from 2027, implying a significant increase in the recurring capital return potential. While the buyback announcement was in-line with our expectations, we came away from the event feeling more confident that management are focused on maximising shareholder value. Leverage calculation update is helpful The confirmation that the Moody''s leverage ratio will include 50% of CSM affirms that there is considerable debt leverage headroom. This gives the company ample capacity for bolt-on activity (e.g. small bancassurance deals) while also returning the stock of excess capital to shareholders. Trading update is slightly soft There was a very brief update on trading for 2Q24, implying that new business volume growth will be similar to that seen in 1Q (+7% constant FX, +4% actual FX). We think this is behind expectations, and we trim our APE growth for FY24 by 2ppts to 8% (actual FX). Sceptical on elements of investment case - nonetheless, we see value in the shares We''ve explained elsewhere our scepticism on EEV, free surplus targets, and the development of new business IRRs (see Cash Nexus 2024). Given 6% underperformance since our last update, and in light of the new framework, we see value in the shares, and upgrade to Outperform.