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  • 25 Feb 2021

Continuing to execute well


Drax Group plc (DRX:LON) | 681 98.7 2.2% | Mkt Cap: 2,359m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Savvantidou Sofia SS

    • 6 pages


 

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Continuing to execute well


Drax Group plc (DRX:LON) | 681 98.7 2.2% | Mkt Cap: 2,359m


  • Published: 25 Feb 2021
  • Author: Savvantidou Sofia SS
  • Pages: 6
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Strategy on track Drax continues to progress with its strategy of enhancing the value of the post 2027 options for its biomass plants and biomass self-supply. The acquisition of Pinnacle Renewable Energy, announced earlier this month, is in line with that strategy and should be modestly both EPS accretive and value enhancing. Completion is expected in Q2 / Q3 and we have now updated our estimates to reflect it. Operational performance on track 2020 results were better than our expectations, with the COVID impact in the Customers business contained and the generation business navigating the volatile power market conditions favourably. Forward hedging as disclosed is broadly consistent with our expectations. We have factored in a slightly bigger impact from the 2021 CfD outage than previously assumed given the details provided on the call and we have increased our financial expenses estimates, beyond just the scope effects. Reiterate Outperform. 2021 will be a key year for Drax with the government moving forward on BECCs and more visibility expected by year-end on whether the Humber region will be selected to move forward for the early phase projects. We have updated our valuation to reflect our latest estimates and slightly higher cost of capital due to the higher rates as well as to add the DPS payable in the coming 12 months. We set our price target at 435p, which factors in 95% probability of the lowest value post 2027 option (biomass 3rd party supplier). We reiterate our Outperform rating.

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