Drax delivered in 2019, hitting EBITDA consensus, and meeting targeted biomass cost reductions of $5/t, a good start to the multi-year programme. Hedging protects FY20E EPS, which sees a slight boost from lower depreciation of the coal plant following the recent closure decision and associated asset write-down in 2019. Outer-years see earnings cuts with achieved power prices positioned £3-4/MWh lower, and pellet opex reflecting the growing size of operations, partially offset by a higher-than-expected clearing price (£15.97/kW/year) in the T-4 CM for delivery year 2023/24. (See Figure 1 overleaf for a summary of earnings changes.) We see little risk to FY21E from sustained power price pressure, while our assumptions for FY22E are only slightly above forward prices (Figure 3). Longer-term, we expect revenue growth opportunities for Drax’s biomass, gas, and pumped storage assets from a growing need for system support, balancing market, inertia, and flexibility services (Figure 4). We suggest that greater disclosure from Drax in this respect would be a help to investors. Our valuation falls 7% to 358p, although given our unchanged approach to the biomass/pellet transfer price in 2027, our valuation of generation nudges up, while that of the pellet business falls (Figure 6). Indeed, we may turn out to be conservative, as our post 2027 combined biomass/pelleting EBITDA is less than half of Drax’s £100m aspiration. Refocussing the pelleting business to the global business may yet prove to be a greater source of value. Drax may not possess the stability of networks in these uncertain and volatile times, but the recent coronavirus/oil shock induced weakness is a chance to add to holdings. We are Buyers with a 360p target price (previously 385p).