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29 Jul 2020
First Take: Drax Group - Outlook confirmed

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First Take: Drax Group - Outlook confirmed
Drax Group plc (DRX:LON) | 681 98.7 2.2% | Mkt Cap: 2,359m
- Published:
29 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Martin Young | Marc Elliott -
Pages:
5 -
1H20 adjusted EBITDA slightly ahead of our expectations
1H20 adjusted EBITDA of £179m, up 29.6% vs. 1H19, and slightly ahead of our £174m estimate. Adjusted EPS of 10.8p vs. 2.0p in 1H19, and ahead of our 10.1p estimate. DPS of 6.8p vs. 6.4p in 1H19, broadly in line with our 6.9p estimate. Net debt of £792m broadly in line with our £820m estimate. (Further details in Figure 1 overleaf)
Generation boost offsets Covid-19 hit in B2B
Generation EBITDA of £214m was ahead of our £193m estimate, with biomass generation of 7.4TWh (up 1TWh vs. 1H19), and system support revenues up £5m to £66m as Drax benefitted from greater flexibility needs in the system due to Covid-19. EBITDA from hydro and gas generation rose by £18m to £54m, underscoring the value of these assets acquired from ScottishPower at end 2018.
Pellet production EBITDA of £25m, in line with our expectations, with 0.75mt produced vs. 0.65mt in 1H19. Pellet production cost of $154/t vs. $161/t in FY19, and heading towards our $145/t for FY20E. The 0.35mt expansion of existing sites is underway, and investment in 0.12mt of satellite plants has been announced, with $40m investment to be made.
B2B Energy Supply EBITDA loss of £37m, worse than the £20m loss we forecast. Reduced demand, hedge unwinding and a doubling of bad debt provisions all impacted.
Outlook confirmed, 17.1p dividend indicated
Drax has indicated that the outlook for FY20 adjusted EBITDA, inclusive of c.£60m Covid-19 impact is in line with consensus of £393m. The expected dividend for FY20 is 17.1p, slightly ahead of market consensus of 16.9p.
The investment outlook for the year now stands at £190-210m vs. previous guidance of £230-250m, of which £78m was invested in 1H20. This is due to non-essential maintenance (e.g. Shoreham) being delayed, and a £30m reduction in strategic investments in biomass. These are delays, rather than cancellations, to projects which Drax has not yet announced.