Drax’s sharp drop in H1 EBITDA to £70m from £120m, while disappointing, was well flagged by management and signposted by commodity moves. Of far more interest, we believe, are the impending regulatory changes that will modify Drax’s earnings profile. The company expects to hear about state aid on contracts for difference (CFDs) this autumn. This will mark a continuation of Drax’s transformation from its historic earnings sensitivity to swings in electricity, coal and carbon prices to a more stable, regulated earnings profile. Provided the regimes introduced are profitable, we believe regulatory certainty and enhanced profitability will drive a stock re-rating.