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18 Nov 2020
A pure play on the UK''s Green Industrial Revolution
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A pure play on the UK''s Green Industrial Revolution
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,870 -626.6 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 20,745m
- Published:
18 Nov 2020 -
Author:
Savvantidou Sofia SS -
Pages:
7 -
Making a strong Green case
We have argued all year that the investment case for SSE as a pure play on the UK green transition is underappreciated by the market. The management''s H1 presentation we believe went a long way to providing credence to our argument, with details on the renewables pipeline through to 2030 on a day that the UK government unveiled its 10 point Green Industrial Revolution plan. We continue to see scope for OFGEM''s final RIIO2 determination to better capture the network investment needs when it is announced in December. As with our National Grid estimates, we now assume a 4.5% allowed return on equity vs 3.95% proposed at the draft determination.
Solid financial performance
H1 results were above our estimates and the guidance provided for FY of 75-85p inclusive of the Seagreen and Dogger Bank capital gains is positive. Management suggested that the actual completion of the Dogger Bank sell-down, due by calendar year-end, has scope to provide upside rather than downside to this figure. We include about 8p of capital gain to our estimates. For next year onwards we have modestly increased our estimates on slightly lower financial expenses and better forward hedging.
Asset rotation: a value creating strategy
SSE''s cash outlay in key renewable projects in the period 2021-25 will amount to about GBP2bn, with returns locked in and set to add ca. 10p to earnings when completed. This is in part financed by the GBP2bn disposal program which is underway and which is guided to cost ~7p of earnings. There is a mismatch in timing, but it is clear that the strategy is value and earnings enhancing and investors are compensated in the meantime through the steadily growing dividend.
Reiterate Outperform rating
We nudge our SOTP price target higher to 1700p to reflect our updated financial estimates and we reiterate our positive view on the stock ahead of heavy newsflow in the coming months, including the OFGEM review, the Dogger Bank...