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  • 25 May 2023

Beat, raise and read


SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,140 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 25,829m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Avory Hannah HA | Wyburd Harry HW

    • 8 pages


 

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Beat, raise and read


SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,140 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 25,829m


  • Published: 25 May 2023
  • Author: Avory Hannah HA | Wyburd Harry HW
  • Pages: 8
  • BNP Paribas Exane


A lot to digest from SSE''s results and strategy update and several significant guidance hikes - some explained by already-known strong recent FCF and balance sheet position, but nonetheless more than justifying today''s share price outperformance in our view. We see relevant readacross for RWE in updated gas generation guidance and for Orsted in comments on renewables value creation. But we continue to see SSE multiples as stretched after accounting for total debt, and remain at Neutral. All of today''s (many) updates in a paragraph 1) FY23 EPS in line with the pre-close update in March, 2) new FY24 EPS guidance 5% above Bbg consensus, 3) new FY27 EPS CAGR implies c187p EPS by FY27E vs. prev. guidance 121p by FY26, 4) DPS growth target increased to 5-10% pa to FY27 vs. prev. 5% growth to FY26, 5) now guiding to 3.5-4x ND/EBITDA by FY27 vs. prev 4.5x by FY26, 6) no longer selling minority in electricity distribution, 7) higher renewables capacity and RAB targets, and finally the only substantive negative adjustment, 8) slightly lower IRR-WACC spread target for renewables. Flexible generation guidance the key takeaway for us There was more to the presentation than can be covered in a page, but the most interesting update for us was on thermal generation, where SSE are now guiding to average sustainable EBIT of c.GBP500m/pa, roughly quadruple pre-COVID/Ukraine levels. This adds weight to the thesis that flexible generation is seeing structurally higher profitability, with relevance across the sector in our view. Trimming value creation targets, in contrast to most peers SSE has adjusted downward its overall renewables IRR-WACC spread target from 100-400bp previously to 50-300bp today. Drivers were cited as higher competition, a higher cost of debt and a mix effect from more lower-spread solar. This is notable as most peers have held firm in their value creation guidance despite these factors. Client feedback has been mixed with some seeing this as...

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