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06 Oct 2025
Does SSE need to raise equity?
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Does SSE need to raise equity?
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,186 -218.7 (-0.5%) | Mkt Cap: 26,390m
- Published:
06 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Wyburd Harry HW | Xu Joy JX -
Pages:
32 -
We think SSE could see a near-50% share price liftoff if new CEO Martin Pibworth successfully navigates the company out of the current emotional fear cycle over equity needs. In this 20-page note, we deep-dive on two scenarios: an equity raise, and a balance sheet fortification plan involving hybrids and asset sales. We conclude a combination of both is most likely. Entering the shares at the right moment - or in a raise - could offer you almost as much upside as Elia, now 60% up since it raised in the spring. We reiterate Outperform with even greater conviction than before.
This note is based on detailed new work and carries several new conclusions
1) We est. SSE would need a GBP3.3bn raise to fully plug the balance sheet to FY31 in a scenario of high grid capex, low power prices and high borrowing costs, 2) an alternative disposals and hybrids plan would need to be very big - potentially too big - to achieve the same result, 3) in theory action isn''t needed immediately - we see the B/S as secure until ~2029 - but in practice the UK election (also in ''29) and perceived overhang risk means SSE needs to take action much earlier in our view.
There are three possible outcomes, we think; most should allow to generate significant alpha
1) A raise, perhaps with additional top-up disposals, 2) a specific disposal-only action plan, or 3) maintaining the status quo of emphasising balance sheet levers. The last one could risk attracting activist interest in our view. But the first two could spark a very powerful share price recovery by clearing perceived overhang risk. A cGBP2bn raise + some disposals is the sweet spot in our view. Early 2026 seems the most opportune timing, but we wouldn''t totally rule out 1H results on 12th Nov.
Fundamentals are strong with 16%/10% EPS CAGR FY26 through FY29/31
And the shares are at a quasi-distressed c8.5x FY27 P/E vs. peers like Iberdrola on 16x. UK politics could be an alternative explanation for the discount, but we...