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19 Jun 2025
Judgement Days
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Judgement Days
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,215 -797.4 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 24,565m
- Published:
19 Jun 2025 -
Author:
Wyburd Harry HW | Xu Joy JX -
Pages:
15 -
SSE is facing an upcoming wave of events and catalysts, including a potentially imminent govt decision on zonal pricing, the RIIO-T3 regulatory determination for transmission, and the AR7 renewables CfD auction. We think the co is also getting closer to the point where it will need to update on its funding strategy. We see scope for each of these to be positive catalysts for the shares, which despite a recent pickup still trade at a substantial discount to peers. Reiterate Outperform.
Several important events approaching - we think each could prove positive
We do new work on two of the more imminent catalysts alongside this note: 1/ a zonal pricing decision from the UK govt - we think a damaging outcome for SSE is looking less likely (see note), and 2/ The RIIO-T3 transmission draft determination - previewed here- which we think will prove benign.
Balance sheet could be a catalyst too
Investors have raised concerns about SSE''s balance sheet, with the co''s assertion that they are fully funded to March''27 now providing little over 18 months of comfort. But we wonder whether this is actually an opportunity rather than a threat. A growing list of peers that raised equity recently saw their share prices increase afterwards. Conditions are improving for UK issuance, with the FTSE 100 just reaching an all time high. And SSE have means to control the timing in our view, with disposal options that could buy time to execute on their own terms, should equity ultimately be needed.
Stock remains cheap and earning revision risks skewing positively in recent weeks
SSE shares have recovered from their March lows but have barely outperformed the sector during that time and still trade at eg a c30% P/E discount to peer Iberdrola. Wind speeds have picked up in June, and UK power prices have rallied; both could prove supportive for earnings. We see multiple positive catalysts starting to align. Reiterate Outperform.
See our accompanying notes on zonal pricing here...