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  • 14 Nov 2024

Success(ion)


SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,870 -626.6 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 20,745m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Wyburd Harry HW | Xu Joy JX

    • 12 pages


 

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Success(ion)


SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,870 -626.6 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 20,745m


  • Published: 14 Nov 2024
  • Author: Wyburd Harry HW | Xu Joy JX
  • Pages: 12
  • BNP Paribas Exane


With the retiring CEO having presided over a transformation of SSE over the past decade, we think investors will be watching for any change in attitudes towards capital allocation and balance sheet under his successor next year. Meanwhile, although 1H results weren''t seismic financially, we think comments on the call should help pacify worries about Dogger Bank timeline delays. CEO succession: changing of the guard Retiring CEO Alistair Phillips-Davies is well-respected and has presided over SSE''s transformation from a mature domestic incumbent utility into a globally relevant renewables and power networks growth play over the last decade. However, we don''t see an orderly management transition as compromising the investment case, nor do we see anything ulterior in his decision to retire after 27 years at the company. The bigger question for us is what succession could mean for the next financial plan iteration - a lot has changed since SSE''s ''NZAP'' 2027 plan was laid out and we think an update is due in the not-too-distant future: it will be important to gauge any change in direction under new management especially wrt. renewables capital allocation and balance sheet outlook. Dogger Bank offshore wind delays: cutting into generous buffer in our view SSE acknowledged a negative impact on returns from the latest delay, but emphasised offsets like delayed CfD startup (= higher short term achieved prices) and balance sheet-positive delays to capex equity injections. We think worries over the project are overblown; we trim our FY26 EPS slightly to account for a delay and higher capex/lower value creation, but still sit towards the top end of the 175-200p EPS guidance range by FY27 and a touch above consensus for FY26. Tweaking numbers, this year slightly up, next year slightly down We raise FY25 EPS by 3.5% mainly on strong 1H volumes, bringing us in line with cons., and trim FY26 by 2.5% but still slightly above cons. We roll forward our valuation...

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