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17 Jun 2020
First Take: SSE - Disposals support dividend
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First Take: SSE - Disposals support dividend
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,263 837.3 1.7% | Mkt Cap: 27,313m
- Published:
17 Jun 2020 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
4 -
Headline numbers in line
SSE has reported adjusted operating profit of £1,488m vs. our £1.479m, and adjusted EPS of 83.6p (vs. our 82p). Covid-19 has impacted by £51.9m, of which £33.7m has been treated as exceptional. Networks at £777m was slightly ahead of our £762m estimates, with renewable at £567m broadly in line with our £571m. Retained retail activities came up short.
Adjusted net debt and hybrid capital of £10.5bn was in line with guidance. As expected, the FY dividend is 80p/share.
Covid-19 to hit FY21
SSE has pointed to a potential £150-250m impact on EBIT from Covid-19 in FY21, and EPS guidance will be provided later in the year. Volume impacts in networks should be largely recoverable, but over half of the impact is seen in the customer solutions and enterprise activities. Measures to reduce FY21 cash outflow by £250m, largely by deferring capex, have been outlined.
RPI dividend growth, supported by £2bn disposal programme
A disposal programme of £2bn by autumn 2021 has also been announced. Non-core assets are targeted, and processes are under way for the gas production assets, and the contracting business. SSE has an option to sell the remaining SGN stake, is considering minority sales of electricity networks, and partnering in renewables. SSE sees this as supportive of its RPI dividend growth plan through to FY23, this being above the flat 80p dividend we assume.
Capex driven by net zero
Capex of £7.5bn through to FY25 is expected, above the £4.7bn we model, but a large part of the difference will be due to three large wind projects; Viking, Dogger Bank, and Seagreen, none of which are in our estimates at present. SSE also appears to have higher network spend, but this will be driven by Ofgem’s RIIO-2 decision, with draft determinations due on 9th July.