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27 Mar 2020
First Take: SSE - Dividend clarity gone
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First Take: SSE - Dividend clarity gone
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,870 -626.6 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 20,745m
- Published:
27 Mar 2020 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
4 -
EPS guided to lower end of range, where we sit
SSE has published a trading update this morning, indicating that pre any Covid-19 impacts that may become apparent, EPS for FY March’20 will be at the lower end of the previously communicated 83-88p range. We are at 83.6p. A high single-digit decrease in operating profit for networks is indicated, suggesting that our 6% decrease may be marginally optimistic. On the other hand, we have a 21% increase in renewable operating profit vs. SSE’s indications of a c.25% jump.
Net debt guidance is for c.£10.7bn, above our £10.3bn, and higher than the previously guided to level of £10.4bn. Capex of £1.5bn, £0.2bn higher than our estimate accounts for a large part of the difference.
Adjusted net finance costs (including leases) are expected to be around £465m vs. the previously guided level of just over £450m, although the latter did not include IFRS 16 lease costs.
SSE has £1.5bn of committed bank facilities comprising a £200m bilateral facility with Bank of China maturing in October 2024; and the £1.3bn Revolving Credit Facility, for which SSE recently exercised an option to extend for one year, taking the maturity to March 2025. Of these facilities, £75m is currently drawn. SSE has indicated that “to cover debt maturities later in the year, it will continue to monitor closely capital markets, and will look to issue new debt when appropriate”.
FY results have been delayed until the second half of June.
Dividend uncertainty
SSE still intends to a pay an 80p dividend for 2019/20, as Covid-19 has not so far had a material impact on the current financial year, but the Board may reconsider the timing of dividend payments. For 2020/21, the target remains a full-year dividend of 80 pence per share plus RPI inflation. SSE has indicated that it is much too early to forecast the impact of Covid-19 on the UK and Irish economies and therefore on SSE's businesses. As such, SSE has indicated there is a possibility that the dividend policy could be revised: “The Board's final decision on the quantum and timing of dividend payments in relation to 2020/21 will be taken in light of the extent of the impact of the wider economic situation on SSE's businesses”.
SSE will also be reviewing capital expenditure plans for projects which have not yet reached financial close. In our opinion, this would include both the Seagreen and Dogger Bank offshore wind projects, awarded last year in CFD AR3.