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16 Jun 2020
SSE : Dividend in focus - Hold
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SSE : Dividend in focus - Hold
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 2,298 7639.2 16.8% | Mkt Cap: 25,480m
- Published:
16 Jun 2020 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
7 -
In its most recent trading statement, SSE guided towards a high single-digit percentage decrease for networks EBIT, and an increase of c25% for SSE Renewables. Our estimates are consistent with this guidance.
SSE guided towards the lower end of an 83-88p range for adjusted EPS, pre any Covid-19 impacts that might become apparent. We have already factored additional bad debt costs into FY20E, and our adjusted EPS stands at 82p. Our net debt & hybrid capital estimate is £10.6bn, slightly above SSE’s guided ‘around £10.5bn’.
We expect the full impact of Covid-19 to be felt in FY21E, with volume shortfalls (recovered two years later), heightened bad debt risk, and exposure to higher BSUOS costs as generation bears 50% of BSUOS costs. The SSE promoted CMP 345 MOD is pending Ofgem’s decision, but it appears that the baseline might prevail. FY21E is therefore exposed to heightened uncertainty and possible pressure on numbers. We also look for management to comment on exposure of fixed cost non-programmable generation to the low power price environment.
SSE has indicated that future capex plans will be set out as part of the results, and a sell down of Seagreen was executed post year-end. We also look for an update on the gas production assets sale process.
SSE confirmed its intention to pay an 80p dividend for FY20, with a RPI growth policy for FY21. Our view is that such a policy would lead to an uncomfortably high payout ratio, and we hold the dividend flat at 80p through FY23E. We look to the results for clarity on the policy.