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23 Mar 2022
SSE : Energy independence a clear benefit - Buy
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SSE : Energy independence a clear benefit - Buy
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,870 -626.6 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 20,745m
- Published:
23 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
13 -
Last November SSE set out its Net Zero Acceleration Programme (Figure 1), alluding to significant opportunities in generation (renewables & thermal), and networks. We opined at the time that the big picture was clear, while subsequent events, and an increasing emphasis on energy independence and electrification are hugely supportive of SSE’s strategy and positioning, in our view.
We remain cognisant of the fact that SSE’s plans involve uncertainty mechanisms in networks, the outcome of the RIIO-ED2 regulatory process, the disposal of a minority stake in the SSEN networks business, and farm-downs in offshore wind. As the timing and quantum of proceeds are uncertain, as well as allowed ED2 totex, and uncertainty mechanisms across the network business, we do not present our estimates on the same basis as SSE’s plan.
Reconciling, our estimates include c.£8bn of consolidated capex to which a net c.£2.9bn of project finance investment less assumed OFTO proceeds should be added. SSE’s plan also includes c.£2.5bn for thermal/other. Adjusting for a sale of 25% of networks at end FY23 suggests c.£12.8bn of net investment to FY26E pre farm-downs, broadly consistent with SSE’s plan.
Our updated estimates (Figure 5, Figure 11), presented on the basis of 100% network ownership throughout, suggest EPS CAGR of 7.3% through to FY26E, above SSE’s guided 5-7% range. Assuming the disposal of 25% of networks at a 40% premium to FY23E RCV would reposition our estimates to show c.6.1% growth over this period, in line with SSE’s guidance.
Our updated valuation reflects many moving parts, including higher power prices and a higher WACC (4.5% vs. 3.6%), but rises to 1,855p (vs. 1,800p). A supportive political backdrop/broader narrative sees us remain BUYERS.