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24 Oct 2019
SSE : Increasing strategic clarity, but pause for breath - Hold
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SSE : Increasing strategic clarity, but pause for breath - Hold
SSE PLC (SSE:LON) | 1,688 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 18,715m
- Published:
24 Oct 2019 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
13 -
The announced disposal of SSE Energy Services to Ovo, albeit at a price lower than our valuation, facilitates greater strategic clarity and reinforces focus on the long-term direction of travel. A disposal of gas production, possible this year, would be a further boost.
SSE’s success in the recent CFD Allocation Round 3 auction suggests that it is full steam ahead for the renewables strategy. Record low strike prices mean that the onus is on SSE to demonstrate how Dogger Bank and Seagreen will add value, but we believe low double-digit equity returns are possible in highly levered project finance structures. We expect SSE to sell down stakes in both projects, possibly with valuation benefits.
Our housekeeping exercise on estimates sees EPS trimmed to reflect FY20E guidance update, and assumed reclassification of gas production as being ‘held for sale’. We make no change to our 80p dividend for FY20E, nor an RPI growth track through to FY23E.
Our valuation moves up to 1,341p from 1,251p due to both positives (FY21E roll forward, higher gas production valuation, higher generation valuation) and negatives (achieved price for retail, JV debt and decommissioning liabilities), with an additional driver of our higher 1,340p target price the removal of the previously applied 133p nationalisation discount. However, a 12-month total return of c.8% suggests that increased visibility is largely in the price, and we remain Holders.